Research On Terrorist Attack Risk Assessment Of Public Trasportation Hub Based On Simulation

In recent years,with public transport industry developing rapidly in our country,the public transport hubs in various large and medium-sized cities have been gradually improved.The transport hubs have brought great convenience for the residents in cities to travel and trade logistics.At the same time,Meanwhile the safety problems of public transport hubs have become increasingly prominent.Since 2012,terrorist activities have been outbroke frequently around the world.In China,terrorist attacks also occurred in Kunming,Beijing,Urumqi and other cities.Public transport hubs have gradually become one of the main targets of terrorist attacks,due to some characteristics such as high gathering capacity,great impact,great loss and inconvenience of evacuation in case of emergencies.Therefore,it is particularly important to analyze the basic and current situation of different types of public transport hubs and traffic places in different regions,study appropriate risk assessment methods,establish and improve terrorist attack risk assessment mechanism of different types of public transport hubs at different levels in different regions.Firstly,the study analysis comprehensive characteristics of the terrorist attacks in the suspect,attack way,attack sites,in different types of traffic hub,then comprehensive analysis and summary characteristics and risk factors of typical public transportation such as subway,railway stations,airports and other,based on the worldwide terrorist attacks in public transport hubs.Secondly,summarizes the methods and models of terrorist attack risk assessment in public traffic hubs,and then focuses on the implementation approach and specific process of terrorist attack risk assessment in public transport hubs by using evacuation simulation software such as Anylogic.Then,an airport in city N is selected as an example for empirical analysis,and an index system and risk assessment model of airport terrorism risk assessment are constructed with the terminal hall of the airport as the main analysis object.Firstly,4 analysis areas were identified by threat comparison,through field visits and expert consultation.Then the vulnerability risk assessment index system of N airport,which includes 2 first-level indicators,7 second-level indicators and84 third-level indicators,was determined based on the assessment model.At last,established An explosion event and pedestrian evacuation behavior mathematical logic model of airport departure and arrival level by using Anylogic software based on the social force model,simulation to observe the casualties and emergency evacuation process in different type position and different place.At last,take N airport as an example to analyze the vulnerability and consequence of the airport after the terrorist attacks.The analysis results are as follows.Firstly,among the 4 regions of N airport,risk level of terrorist attack of the domestic check-in area is the highest,the level is highest risk,while the others are the same,which is higher risk.Secondly,the location and regions where terrorist attacks occur have a great impact on the consequence of casualties and evacuation results.Thirdly,through the analysis of vulnerability and consequence simulation analysis,it is found that N airport has certain weak links in security equipment,security check responsibilities and emergency response against terrorist attacks.According to the analysis results,it is pointed out that the anti-terrorist prevention ability should be improved from the following 4 aspects,including strengthening the implementation of policies and long-term risk assessment mechanism,improving the equipment support and development,strengthening the intelligence leadership and pre-plan construction so as to reduce the risk of terrorism in the airport.The research results can provide some empirical proof and scientific basis for the further establishment of risk assessment mechanism and methods for airports in China.