| Terrorism is rampant in the world today,so that seriously threatening national security and social stability.The coach station,where is a road transportation hub and a high gathering place for people,has become a potential target for terrorist attacks.In order to avoid the occurrence of tragic attacks,it is necessary to effectively control the terrorist risks it faces,meanwhile,comprehensively improve the coach station’s ability to prevent terrorist attacks.In order to achieve this purpose,this paper refers to the study works in the field of risk assessment of security systems,and takes coach stations as the research object,and establishes a kind of risk assessment including threat analysis,identification of key parts,and vulnerability assessment of security systems that are widely applicable to various types of coach stations.Terrorist attack risk assessment process to coach stations though selecting a real passenger station for this process such as application to evaluate the coach station’s ability to prevent terrorist attacks,effectively identify the various security and defense in the current security system,and propose security system optimization countermeasures based on the assessment conclusion;final selection the evaluation of the high-risk event establishes a simulation model to reproduce the attack process,besides,to analyzes the cause and optimization strategy of the simulation result.Through the statistical combing of attack events in history,combined with correlation analysis,expert scoring and other methods to determine the cost and destructiveness of each attack means to assess the threat level,including the explosive attack rating is high,followed by hacking and arson burning.Based on the assets and regional attributes of each part of the coach station,the risk level and the priority of prevention of the part are evaluated,which the highest parts are the ticket hall,transfer area,and waiting hall.The security system risk assessment system including three secondary indicators such as preparation and threat capabilities,detection and early warning capabilities,response and disposal capabilities,and it is determined that is 13 tertiary indicators such as fixed duty positions.It is semi-qualitative through analytic network process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods,to determine the index weights and evaluate the construction of security systems in a semi-quantitative manner.The N coach station,where in Jiangsu Province,was selected to carry out risk assessment and comprehensive threat analysis,identification of key parts,and the risk list of security system vulnerability output.It was concluded that the coach station has good overall ability to prevent terrorist attacks,insufficient details,and individual attacks are still high-risk risks and other conclusions,and put forward countermeasures to optimize the security system.There were selected of three types of high-risk incidents,such as explosive attacks in the waiting hall,ticketing hall,square in front of the station,knife and axe killing,and arson burning,and the simulation model of the terrorist attack on the coach station based on the social force model was built based on Anylogic software.Through the three types of sub-models of pedestrian,attacker,and personnel evacuation,the simulation of the beginning and end of terrorist attacks was realized.The cause analysis of the casualties and evacuation time of various attacks and the optimization strategies were proposed. |