The Research On The Influence Of Population Aging On China’s Economic Growth

Population aging is a major social problem faced by many countries.Our countryhas entered the aging society.This is because on the one hand our country hasimplemented the strict family planning policy and the natural population growth ratehas dropped significantly.On the other hand along with our country’s rapid economicdevelopment,mortality rate has declined and the average life expectancy hasincreased.The characteristics of our country’s population aging are the large absolutenumber of elderly people,elderly population aging,large regional differences and outof sync with the economic development.Domestic and foreign theoretical research have proved that the population agingwill affect the economic growth.Population aging influences economic growth bylabor quantity,labor productivity, industrial structure,savings and human capitalinvestment.Population aging can both promote and restrain the economy.The trendof population aging is irreversible.We should not only respond to its adverse effectsactively,but also make full use of its role in promoting economic growth to realize thehealthy and sustainable development between population and economy.What’s the influence of population aging on economic growth needs furtherempirical research.In this paper,I made an empirical analysis based on VEC modelwith per capita real GDP,the proportion of aged65and older population,naturalpopulation growth rate these three variables from1980to2011to research theinfluence of population aging on China’s economic growth.The results showed thatthere was a long-term co-integration relationship among them,and the proportion ofelderly people and the natural population growth rate were both the Granger reasonfor economic growth.And the rise of the proportion of elderly people and the naturalpopulation growth rate producted a negative effect on economic growth.Thebeneficial effect on the decline of the natural population growth rate was less than thenegative impact of the rising proportion of elderly people.In the long run,the declineof the natural population growth rate was a disadvantage to China’s economy. So we should adjust our country’s family planning polity reasonably and properly,and utilizethe human capital of the eldly people,and promote the industry for the agingpopulation to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure.This can realize thecoordinated and sustainable development of population, economy,resources andenvironment.