The Demographic Trends In Northeast China And The Corresponding Impact On Economic Growth

The problems of population and economy in the Northeast is long-standing,but in recent years,the situation has been particularly severe.The population has experienced negative growth and GDP growth rate at the bottom of the country.Under the backdrop of the country's vigorous investment in revitalizing Northeast China and promoting the transformation of its industrial structure,it is necessary to analyze the impact of economic growth on the demographic perspective.Domestic and foreign studies have shown that there is an inseparable link between population and economic development,this article will focus on the characteristics of population changes and their impact on the economy.To describe the relationship and trend of population and economy,it analyzes the status quo and causes of the population problem in Northeast China.By comparing with the national level over the same period,we can see that the population change in the Northeast has its own unique features.It is particularly manifested in the ultra-low fertility level,the outflow of working-age population is serious,and the ageing is significantly higher than the national average level,as well as the reasons for the above characteristics of the Northeast analysis.Based on the characteristics of the Northeast's population changes,historical growth accounting methods are used to decompose economic growth into three contributing factors: the growth of the labor age population,the growth of labor productivity,and the increase in the efficiency of labor force utilization.Decomposed into two aspects: scale and structure,examining the characteristics and trends of real GDP growth and various contribution factors in the Northeast region from 1991 to 2015.The following conclusions are drawn from this study: First,the increase of labor productivity is the most important driving force for economic growth in the Northeast over the past 25 years.Second,the efficiency of labor utilization has been transformed from the previous suppression to a positive contribution of the economy;Third,the growth of the working-age population can explain 7.1% of economic growth in the past 25 years,the demographic structure contributes more to the economy than the population size,but from 2011 to 2015,The contribution of demographic factors to the economy fell to-6.5%,and the negative trend is increasing year by year.Fourth,from the analysis of contribution factors,the three elements have shown a declining trend as a whole.In the future,the economic growth rate of Northeast China will continue to decline.Fifth,the negative impact of the population factors in the northeast region on the economy from 2011 to 2015 is significantly greater than that of the entire country.