Population Outflow And Economic Growth In Northeast China

In recent years,economic growth in the Northeast has slowed down,population outflows have intensified,and the issue of population outflows and economic growth in Northeast China has been widely discussed in academia.According to the fifth and sixth national census data,the net population inflow of Liaoning Province was 375,000,and the net inflow during the Liupu period was 495,000,a slight increase.The populations of Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces are in a net outflow state.The net outflow of population in Wupu County of Jilin Province is 275,000,and the number of people in Liupu has increased to 509,000.The outflow situation is relatively serious.The net outflow of population in Wupu County in Heilongjiang Province was 638,000,and the net outflow of Liupu time was 1.14 million.It is the largest increase in net outflow of population in the three northeastern provinces.As for the three northeastern provinces as a whole,the net outflow of the population of Wupu in 2000 was 538,000.In 2010,this indicator reached 1.154 million.Intensified population outflows in the Northeast during the past decade,which also means the outflow of a large number of young laborers and high human capital,which seriously affects the development of the Northeast economy.At the beginning of the 21st century,the state issued a series of policies to revitalize the old industrial bases in Northeast China,such as promoting the transformation and upgrading of local industries,the economy of the Northeast has been briefly revived.However,since 2012,the Northeast economy has once again declined.In 2014,the GDP growth rate of Liaoning Province,Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province was counted down in the country.In 2016,Liaoning Province's GDP was the bottom of the country,showing negative growth for the first time.There are many reasons for the weakness of the Northeast economy,but the massive outflow of the population is indeed a point that cannot be ignored.This paper first analyzes the characteristics of the outflow population in Northeast China from the perspective of population flow,human capital level and flow direction of floating population,and draws preliminary conclusions:The scale of population outflow in Northeast China has further expanded,and the level of human capital flowing out of the Northeast is relatively high and tends to flow to developed areas in the east,laying the foundation for the following discussion;Then,from the perspective of human capital level and age structure,the mechanism of population outflow in Northeast China is discussed.The impact of population outflow on economic growth involves three paths:human capital outflow,strong labor outflow and household registration.Using the multi-class logistic model to focus on the outflow motivation and flow direction selection of high human capital and middle-high age structure outflow groups.Before the empirical test of population outflow and regional economic growth,the economic growth model of endogenous population migration was constructed.It is theoretically proved that population migration rate has an impact on economic growth,but whether it is positive or negative can't be sure.Then use the data of provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China to add dummy variables,and compare the impact of population outflow on the economic growth of China's eastern,central,western and northeastern regions,focusing on the impact of population age structure variables and population migration variables on economic growth.In the last part,the research conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper are given,in order to contribute to the relief of population outflow in Northeast China.There are two innovations in this paper:First,this paper gives the path of the impact of population mobility on regional economic development,which is not summarized in the previous literature;Second,in previous studies,scholars often focused on a certain area,ignoring the comparative study between the regions,and this paper added dummy variables to compare and analyze the four regions of East,Central,West and Northeast.The shortcoming of this paper is that it only studies the effect of population outflow on economic growth,and the adverse effect of economic growth on population flow,this article does not go into depth,just a brief discussion,and needs to be supplemented.