| In 2000,the proportion of population over 65 in China has exceeded the international level line 7%,which means that our country has entered the aging stage.The value increased to 8.87% up to 2010 and reached 10.8% in 2016 which indicates that China has already been "not rich but old".With the accumulation of pressure caused by aging population,the old-age security system in China is facing new challenges.According to the relevant statistics,the endowment insurance deficit of urban workers in China reached 508 billion and 600 million Yuan in 2016 when disregarding the financial subsidies and the growth rate was up to 81.84% over the same period.In the face of the problem of aging,the developed countries have established a policy for postponing the retirement age and it’s conducive to reduce the pressure of pension payments with practical provements.The concept of postponing retirement raised during the 18 th Third Plenary Session in 2013 has attracted the attention of the society.It’s worthy to make further studies to prove that whether China can reduce the pressure of pension payment by raising the retirement age.With the purpose,this paper used MATLAB to establish and calculate population and endowment insurance account predictions when postponing retirement in China.Then the effect on the income and expenditure of urban workers’ endowment insurance was analyzed.This paper firstly sorted out the relevant literatures at home and abroad,and expounded the rationalities of raising the retirement age based on correlative economic theories.Then it was taken a brief summary of the history of China’s retirement policy,and analyzed the existing problems both of retirement system and endowment insurance in our country.After that this paper clarified the functionary mechanism of postponing retirement and established a simple regression model.It was found that the wages of workers and the number of retirees are the main factors influencing pension incomes and expenditure.Finally,the population and the collection-payment of the endowment insurance forecasting models were build combined with the ‘comprehensive second child’ policy.A total of four postponing schemes which belong to two forms were put forward as well.After comparing the forecast data under different schemes,the following conclusions were drawn:a)Delaying the retirement age increases the payment ability of pension mainly through reducing the expenditure of old-age insurance.According to the calculated data,a total of 13 billion and 486 million Yuan account gap of endowment insurance will be eliminated if men and women raise their retirement age at 1.b)Each of the four different postponing schemes can reduce the payment pressure on the overall account and personal account of urban workers’ endowment insurance,but it cannot eradicate the deficit phenomenon of the overall account while just delays the time of gap appearing.c)The velocity of postponing retirement can make a difference on the insurance account.Specifically,either a larger retirement age or a bigger velocity will make a better positive effect under the same conditions.d)The effect of postponing retirement policy on gender is also different.In general,when both men and women postponing their retirement at the age of 1,the proportion of funding gap reduced of female pension accounts is higher than that of men.At last,this paper further put forward several policy suggestions such as strengthening the prophase propaganda of the postponing retirement policy,formulating the mechanism of reward and punishment system in order to eliminate the early retirement,targeting on the same retirement of men and women giving with consideration of fairness and finding new ways of pension increment. |
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