The Impact Of Housing On Urban Residents' Fertility Desire

In recent decades,as China's economy has continued to grow,and the level of urbanization has continued to increase.However,the population' s fertility rate has continued to decline,even if the government fully implements the policy of "opening up the second child" and turns from limiting birth to encouraging fertility,it still does not reverse the declining trend of fertility rate.The total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was 1.7 in 2016,which was significantly lower than the replacement level of the population generation(2.1).The continuing low fertility rate will lead to serious aging,new labor and consumption reduction,and arising the crisis of“major countries' empty nests",which will inevitably constrain China' s economic development and social stability.The current decline in fertility rate has become the focus of academic research.Simply interpreting from the aspects of policy,economy and income clearly lacks explanatory power.As housing prices in urban areas have risen sharply,they have exceeded people ' s ability to pay and caused people' s lives with heavy burdens.Housing and birth as two important expenditures in the family,the increase in housing costs will have a certain crowding-out effect on fertility,so residents' housing conditions will have a certain influence on fertility intentions.Therefore,this article attempts to explain the problem of low birth wishes among urban residents,from the perspective of housing.This paper is based on the domestic and foreign literature review and theoretical analysis,using data from China's comprehensive social survey in 2012-2013 and uses the Probit model to estimate an empirical study of the relationship between housing conditions,housing area and fertility desire of residents Also,analyzing the sub-regions from the eastern,central and western regions show that:First,the ownership of housing has a significant positive impact on the residents' desire for fertility.In terms of sub-regions,the resident has real estate in the east,middle,and west,which has a significant positive impact on the residents' birth-bearing intentions.The positive impact of residents' desires on fertility in cities in the central and western regions is not significant;Secondly,the number of real estate has a significant impact on the residents' fertility desire.There is some influence in the central and western regions,but it is not significant.Thirdly,the residents' existing housing area has a significant positive impact on the residents' fertility desire.The large housing area not only explains the family ' s wealth,but also gives the residents the conditions for fertility,which means that the larger houses make it easier to raise children.Based on the results of empirical analysis and the actual situation in China,we propose targeted and feasible policy recommendations.We hope that this study will enable China's government to formulate population policies and real estate control policies to improve the continuing lower fertility rate and the situation of high housing prices.The specific policy recommendations include:the government regulates real estate market policies and stabilizes housing prices through innovation;gradually establishes a long-term mechanism for real estate market regulation;develops the housing leasing market;implements the "Hire and buy" housing system;build and develop social housing;actively promote advanced concepts and establish a correct view of marriage and childbearing concept;the country provides-special fertility funds,which effectively reduces family financial pressure on birth;strengthen the subsidies to the young of purchasing and rental house;real estate companies create "two-child family" units.Finally,aiming at the deficiencies of the study in this paper,we propose further research directions.