The Impact Of Housing Prices On Urban Residents' Fertility Desire On Having Two Children

The problem of population aging and low fertility will become increasingly prominent.The sixth census data show that the total fertility rate of China is 1.18,and the low fertility rate has become a major hidden danger of China's economic and social development.Although the government has issued the universal two-child policy,the implementation of the policy has played a certain effect,but the number of births in 2017 compared to 2016 declined,and the fertility desire is still low.At the same time,the housing price increase is also a major social problem.The impact of housing price on the urban residents' fertility desire has been widely concerned by scholars at home and abroad.Based on the cost utility comparison theory and substitution effect of quantity and quality theory,this paper discusses the impact of the housing price rise on the two child fertility desire of urban residents from two aspects of the crowding out effect and the wealth effect.In terms of crowding out effect,there are mainly housing area constraint effect,substitution effect and responsibility cost effect.In terms of wealth effect,there are mainly realized wealth effect and unrealized wealth effect.Then,based on the Chinese General Social Survey data in 2013 and 2015,this paper made descriptive statistics on the samples,and then analyzed the impact of housing prices on the two child fertility desire of urban residents by using the Probit model.In this paper,the main conclusions are as follows:firstly,on the whole,housing prices will make the urban residents of the two child fertility desire decline,which is greater than the effect of crowding out effect of the wealth effect;secondly,according to the division in the eastern and western regions,each region found effect of crowding out effect were higher than the wealth effect,and the eastern region of the negative effect is greater than the central and western regions;thirdly,the rise in house prices has a negative impact on the total effect of no housing residents and only one housing residents' two child fertility desire.But the impact on the residents with multiple housing is not significant,so they are not sensitive to the change of economic factors;fourthly,studied the interaction terms of having a boy and housing prices,have found having a boy will increase the responsibility cost of purchase house in the future,and then Then the two child fertility desire be reduced through house prices.This effect is significant for only one housing residents,but not for many housing residents and no house residents.Finally,according to the order theory of the choice of fertility desire,the robustness test is carried out by eliminating the samples of the non bearing residents,and the regression results are robust.The results of this study have important policy implications.In order to improve the implementation effect of the two child policy and alleviate the pressure of population aging and gender ratio,this paper gives corresponding policy recommendations:We should strengthen macro regulation and control of the real estate market,complete long-term mechanism;Support private housing demand and suppress speculation demand;accelerate the introduction of property tax,formulate heterogeneous collection system for different housing conditions;improve residents'income level,and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.