The Research About Influence Of Chinese Urban Manufacture Industry On Service Employment Based On Bayesian Model

Employment plays an essential role in national economy,especially for such a big country in terms of great population and region like China.With China's economy entering the pattern of new normal,it is facing challenges and opportunities to optimize industrial structures,increase the proportion of the third industry and stimulate domestic demand.So it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the effect of the employment in urban manufacturing industry on the employment in the service industry.Using the data of 285 prefectural and the above-level cities from 2004 to 2016,this thesis reveals the impact of employment in China's urban manufacturing industry on the employment of service industries with the Bayesian model,and further analyzes their difference among the cities of different scales and regions.First of all,under the Bayesian framework,partial linear semi-parametric model is proposed.The nonlinear functions are fitted by using truncation base cardinal spline and considering the random error terms of mixed normal fitting models,thus it can depict the distribution of symmetrical,asymmetrical,multiple peak error distribution more flexibly.Secondly,in order to test the fitting effect and identification of the model,the thesis is based on the proposed partial linear semi-parametric models.The real value of the parameters,the distribution of nonparametric functions and error distribution are given,random data is generated in R,and the multiple iterations are run with WINBUGS and MCMC is produced,thus the random number sequence of unknown parameters is got.Thus the unknown parameters are statistically inferred and tested by these sequences.Finally,based on the proposed model,empirical analysis is conducted.The result shows that the employment in the urban manufacturing industry in China has a relatively large impact on the employment in the service industry.The further analysis shows that the effect of employment in the service industry in big cities is greater than that in small cities.The impact of the Eastern region is greater than that in China's central and western regions.