The Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Optimization Of Manufacturing Industry Structure

Under the background of the transformation of population structure and accelerated aging of the population,the age structure of China's population is undergoing profound changes.The outstanding performance is that the proportion of elderly people aged 65 or over is increasing rapidly,the constantly increasing demand for the quantity and quality of consumer products among the elderly population of China,which is driving the development of the manufacturing industry in China.At the same time,the working age structure tends to aging,labor participation rate and the labor mobility is reduced,reducing the number of labor force supply,rising labor costs.The change of these factors will have a profound influence on the development of China's manufacturing industry which is dependent on the "quantitative demographic dividend" for a long time.Under such a background,how to make use of the situation to guide and adapt to the deepening trend of China's aging population and promote the optimization of China's manufacturing industry structure is the main research issue in this paper.This paper uses the data of the manufacturing sector breakdown from 1996 to 2015 to construct the FGLS econometric model.The relationship between population aging and the optimization of the manufacturing structure was sorted out and analyzed from the perspective of labor participation rate,labor mobility,labor force age structure,resident consumption,human capital accumulation and technological progress.The results showed that:Firstly,the influence coefficient of old-age dependency rate on the rationalization of manufacturing structure is obviously negative,and the influence coefficient on the high degree of manufacturing structure is positive.Secondly,the influence coefficient of Child-age dependency rate on the rationalization of manufacturing structure is obviously negative,and the influence coefficient on the high degree of manufacturing structure is positive.In comparison,the promotion effect of old-age dependency rate on manufacturing structure is more obvious,and the hindering effect of rationalization of manufacturing structure is more significant.Thirdly,the influence coefficient of the technical level on the rationalization of manufacturing structure is obviously negative,and the influence coefficient of the high degree of manufacturing structure is positive.It can be seen from the empirical analysis that the deepening of the aging of the population has an obvious effect on the high degree of manufacturing structure,and has a significant impediment to the rationalization of manufacturing structure,technological progress has a significant role in promoting the structure height of the manufacturing industry.Finally,based on the above analysis of issues,theoretical discussions,and empirical tests,we propose policy suggestions on how to coordinate the development trend of population aging and promote the optimization of manufacturing industry structure.Such as increasing investment in human capital,fully developing resources for the elderly,formulating a differential retirement age policy,and promoting the optimization of the manufacturing structure;improving the pension insurance system,reducing income gaps,actively developing high-end aging industries,and boosting the manufacturing structure;increasing R&D input,guiding the rational flow of talents and promoting rationalization of the manufacturing industry structure.