The Impact Of Rate Exchange On Employment Structure

After the reform of the RMB exchange rate system was carried out in China from July 2005,the exchange rate of the RMB has generally declined.Under the background of globalization,the change of the RMB exchange rate affects the adjustment of the employment structure.A problem that can not be ignored is how the volatility of the RMB exchange rate impact on employment? Domestic and foreign literature pays more attention to the impact of RMB exchange rate change on total employment,and the influence of labor flow on industries,such as the subdivision sector of manufacturing industry.In these studies,general lack of empirical theoretical support and experience conclusion system support,especially from the city perspective to observe the impact of RMB exchange rate on employment structure adjustment effect,difficult to effectively mitigate the negative impact of the RMB exchange rate changes on the industry employment structure,to further promote the accelerate industrial restructuring and upgrading and to achieve higher quality development through guide the country to adjustment of industrial policy and other measures,Starting from the two sector flow theory,this paper introduces the resource allocation model theory,and constructs a functional relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the employment structure of the two sector,indicating that the RMB exchange rate and employment structure have a negative effect.Meanwhile,the fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate in the past 2002-2014 years is analyzed,which is mainly divided into three stages.The overall trend is decreasing.Based on the data of 276 prefecture level cities in 2002-2014 years,the change of employment structure in two sectors is compared in different time periods and regions.Among them,there are three stages of change in terms of time.From a regional perspective,there are significant differences in the employment structure of the two sectors in the eastern,central and western regions.Based on the theoretical model and the current situation analysis,this paper constructs a general panel model for empirical analysis.4 variables,such as human capital,per capita financial expenditure,industrial structure and average wage of industry,are selected as the control variables.In the process of empirical regression,it is divided into three kinds of regression results,such as the overall regression,the time period regression and the regional regression.The regression results of the total data show that under the premise of controlling relevant variables,the RMB's real exchange rate rises by 1 percentage points,which will adjust the employment ratio of the trade sector to the non trade sector by 0.002 percentage points.The regression results of time periods show that the impact of RMB real exchange rate on the employment structure of 276 cities presents three stages of change,that is,from positive impact to no impact,and then to the negative impact process.The regression results from different regions find that the change of the real exchange rate of RMB has negative effect on the employment structure of the three regions,but the negative effect of the eastern region is not significant.On the contrary,the central and western regions are more significant,and the negative coefficient to the central region is bigger.The study found that the change of RMB exchange rate has a significant negative impact on the employment structure of the two sectors.Both the theoretical model and the empirical results support the conclusion that the RMB exchange rate change negatively affects the employment structure of the two sectors.The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will significantly lead to the flow of labor force in the trade sector to the non trade sector.Secondly,there is a significant time difference in the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the employment structure of the two sectors.In the reform of the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate before the positive impact of two sector employment structure;after exchange rate reform,before the outbreak of the financial crisis,the RMB exchange rate impact on the employment structure of the two sector is not significant;after the financial crisis,the RMB exchange rate has significant negative effects of two departments to the employment structure.Furthermore,there are regional differences in the impact of RMB exchange rate change on the employment structure of the two sectors.In comparison,the change of RMB exchange rate has great influence on the employment structure of the two sectors in the central region,followed by the eastern region and the western region again.In addition,human capital and industrial structure have a significant impact on employment structure adjustment,while per capita financial expenditure and industry average wage significantly negatively affect employment structure adjustment.