| At present,China has entered an aging society,becoming the country with the largest number of elderly people.Population aging affects the investment,consumption,saving,labor supply structure and other important links in national economic construction,posing a realistic challenge to the stable and healthy development of the social economy,it also brings great pressure on China's fiscal expenditure,infrastructure construction,social pension insurance system and public service system.And it affects the level of scientific and technological innovation,threatens China's old-age pension business,and impedes the economic development.At the same time,China's urbanization level has developed rapidly.Population migration has been playing an important part in the process of urbanization.It is not difficult for farmers to move to the county to achieve non-agricultural employment.So the county plays a key role in promoting urbanization.And the county economic unit has its own characteristics.In the process of accelerating urbanization,combining urbanization with the dynamic process of population migration will be helpful to investigate whether migration changes can bring a second demographic dividend to urban areas in China.It is conducive to alleviate the aging of China's population,it has certain reference value for scientific response to aging.Based on the extended todaro model,combined with the different stages of the urbanization development process,this paper attempted to depict the graph which links urbanization,migration and aging,analyzes the relationship between urbanization and aging to explore the relationship between urbanization and aging.Further,this paper adopts county-level data of 1676 counties across the country,takes population migration and aging as endogenous variables,integrates urbanization and other factors into a unified framework to construct a panel data simultaneous equation model to explore the impact of urbanization at the county level on aging,isolated two paths "urbanization-paging" and"urbanization?migration?aging" to explore the direct impact of the level of urbanization on aging and the indirect impact of urbanization through the level of population migration on aging.The conclusion shows that urbanization effectively slows down the aging degree through the direct effect of "urbanization?aging".For the indirect effect,urbanization has significantly promoted population migration,and large-scale population movements with young labor as the main body have had a significant negative impact on the aging of immigrant areas.Considering that aging is a dynamic process.Urbanization in different time periods has different effects on aging.To explore the dynamic characteristics of the impact of urbanization on aging,this paper divides the sample data into two periods of 2000 and 2010 according to the census time to study the dynamic impact characteristics of urbanization on aging over time,the results display that over time,the direct weakening effect of urbanization on aging is weakened,the indirect effect of urbanization on aging through population migration has changed from the promotion effect in 2000 to the mitigation effect in 2010.That is,the direct and indirect effects of urbanization show a shifting relationship over time,but the comprehensive effects rise and both are negative,the comprehensive mitigation effect of urbanization on aging is increasing.In addition,due to the regional differences in urbanization and aging in different regions of China,according to the level of economic development,this paper divides the sample data into economically developed counties and economically underdeveloped counties to deeply explore the heterogeneity of the impact of urbanization on aging.The results show that in terms of sample heterogeneity,the direct effect of urbanization on aging is negative,but it decreases with the improvement of economic development level,Urbanization has a negative indirect effect on aging through population migration but it keeps increasing.The direct weakening effect of urbanization in economically underdeveloped counties on aging is greater,but the urbanization of economically developed counties has a stronger indirect effect on aging through population migration.The innovation of this paper is as follows:(1)Based on the data of county level of 1676 counties in 2000 and 2010,this paper studies the relationship between urbanization and aging in county areas from the perspective of population migration,enriches research at county level.(2)This paper connects urbanization,population migration and aging by establishing the simultaneous equation model,analyzes their relationship in a unified framework,which can solve the endogenous problem may exist between variables.Through the two transmission mechanisms"urbanization?aging" and "urbanization?migration?aging" to isolate the direct and indirect effect of urbanization on aging,and mainly focuses on the indirect effects of urbanization through population migration on aging.(3)This paper also makes a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between urbanization and population aging under multi-dimensional frameworks such as time and space,digs deeper into the dynamic and heterogeneous characteristics of the relationship between urbanization and aging.In summary,the direct effect of urbanization will be weakened with the development of urbanization level,while the indirect effect of urbanization is growing,but ultimately it's going to be hard to offset the direct effect.That is,the way of coping with aging through urbanization of reasonable population distribution is not sustainable.So the county government should formulate the population migration policy according to local conditions.On one hand,we can strengthen the development of county urbanization,promote near-local urbanization model,accelerate the urbanization of agricultural transfer population.From an international perspective,we can make a reasonable immigration policy,to alleviate the domestic age structure imbalance through "high-tech" migration;On the other hand,incentives can be taken to encourage people to have children,further improving the reproductive welfare system;In addition,due to the population migration,rural areas show a trend of "passive" aging.China's rural endowment is under great pressure.Therefore,we should accelerate the establishment of a unified urban and rural pension system. |
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