| In today’s world,resource and environmental issues have gradually become a key issue that constrains the development of all countries.Transforming the mode of economic development and promoting green development are inevitable ways to achieve long-term economic and social development.At the same time,the population problems such as the rising size of the population,the declining fertility level and the increasingly serious population aging are becoming more and more prominent.China is also facing a series of resource and environmental problems and population development issues.The relationship between the development of various demographic factors and green development has increasingly attracted the attention and thinking of scholars.Exploring the impact mechanism of population development on green development,summarizing and grasping the law of coordinated development between population and resources environment is of great significance for China to formulate population-related policies scientifically to coordinate the relationship between population and ecological environment and better realize green development.The OECD is an international organization that pays attention to resource and environment issues early and proposes green growth and measures it.This paper will focus on 36 OECD countries and is based on theories and models of the relationship between population and resource environment,and use statistics on population and green development by OECD database,the world banks,the United Nations,and the International Energy Agency,describe the changing trend and regional differences of various demographic factors and green development level in OECD countries from 2000 to 2015,on this basis,the econometric model is built to explore the impact of different demographic factors on the green development of OECD countries,and summarizes the impact mechanisms to provide a scientific basis for China’s population development and green development.The full text is divided into six parts:The first part is the introduction,summarizing the background,theory andpractical significance of the topic selection,combing the relevant research at home and abroad and giving a comment,expounding the content,research methods and technical routes of the paper.The second part is a theoretical overview,which analyzes related concepts such as green development,population development,human capital,and demographic dividend,and expounds a series of theories and models related to the study of population and environmental relations.The third part describes the development trend of various demographic factors in OECD countries from 2000 to 2015 based on population growth,population structure and population quality.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The population growth rate shows a trend of “first rise,then fall and then rise again”.The total fertility rate is roughly defined by 2008,divided into two stages: volatility rise and volatility decline,the relative differences tend to narrow between various countries;(2)The trend of aging and declining children is becoming more and more serious,the dependency ratio of old age increases year by year,and that of young children decreases gradually,in recent years,the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-64 has decreased significantly;the gender ratio tends to be balanced,the proportion of women labor force has increased significantly,the economic and social status of women has been consolidated;the proportion of the employed population in the tertiary industry has increased significantly;the urbanization rate of the population has been improved,and the trend of population moving to urban areas is obvious;(3)the life expectancy of the population and average years of education and the human development index have continued to rise,and the quality of the population has improved significantly,the quality of population in each country tends to be balanced.In the fourth part,the corresponding indicators are selected from four aspects:resource and environment efficiency,natural resource enrichment,living environment quality and environment policy level,and a evaluation index system of green development is constructed to calculate the index values of various subsystems and the green development comprehensive index of OECD countries from 2000 to 2015,and explore the temporal evolution,the evolution of spatial patterns and the evolutioncharacteristics of spatial differences of the green development level of OECD countries by using GIS spatial analysis,Lorenz curve,Gini coefficient and coefficient of variation,nuclear density estimation and other models and methods.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The green development comprehensive index and the index of resources and environment efficiency,living environment quality and environment policy level are all significantly increased for OECD countries overall,but the pressure of natural resources is still relatively large.The green development comprehensive index has been improved in each countries,and the rankings have changed little,among them,Eastern European countries have made great progress overall,while the green development of Greece,Israel,Japan,Chile and other countries have encountered certain obstacles;(2)The spatial pattern of green development in OECD countries is relatively stablein the past 16 years,and the basic performance is that northern Europe,Oceania and Canada in North America have higher levels of green development,the eastern European region and Asia and Latin America have lower levels of green development,while most regions of western Europe and the United States are at a medium level of green development;(3)The polarization of the green development comprehensive index has gradually improved in OECD countries over the past 16 years,and the number of countries with the medium level of green development has gradually increased,the overall gap of the green development levels in various countries has narrowed and the spatial balance has increased.In the fifth part,based on the correlation analysis of the relationship between demographic factors and green development in OECD countries,six demographic indicators including total fertility rate,proportion of population aged 15-64,proportion of female labor force,proportion of tertiary industry employed population,proportion of urban population and human development index were selected as explanatory variables through reasonable screening,and five economic and social indicators are selected as control variables,multiple models are set to simulate the regression of panel data,so as to analyze the effects of various variables on the green development of OECD countries,and the OECD countries with relatively high levelof economic development and relatively low level of economic development were grouped for regression to explore the differences in the impact of various demographic factors on the green development for countries with different economic levels,and use the conclusions of empirical analysis to summarize the influence mechanism of various demographic factors on the green development in OECD countries.The main conclusions are:(1)For all OECD countries,the increase in total fertility rate promotes green development by promoting technological progress and innovation,providing more adequate talents and labor for social and economic development;The decrease of proportion of the population aged 15-64 and the increase of proportion of the elderly aged 65 promotes green development by promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the technical substitution of labor,the reduction of resource consumption,the transition from lifestyle to low-carbon,and the promotion of environmental awareness;the impact of the proportion of female labor is not significant;The rise of proportion of tertiary industry employment population has a positive impact on green development by optimizing the industrial structure and other paths;the increase in the proportion of urban population has a positive U-shaped impact on green development,and in the early stage of urbanization,it hinder the green development of OECD countries by changing the lifestyle of residents and increasing the consumption of resources and energy and invading natural ecological land,as the urbanization process reaches a higher level,the continuing rise of proportion of urban population has a certain promotion effect by promoting technological progress and innovation,transforming development models,and forming economies of scale,etc.The improvement of the human development index promotes the improvement of green development level through the improvement of environmental awareness,the transformation of lifestyle and consumption patterns,the promotion of technological and innovation to improve resource utilization efficiency.(2)Due to the different development stages and actual conditions of countries in different groups,the industrial structure,the employment structure of the labor force,the technical level and the resource utilization efficiency are all different,so the degree,direction and significance of influence of variousdemographic factors on green development are also different between the two groups,among them,the increase in the proportion of the population aged 15-64 and urban population have a significant negative impact on the green development in countries with low economic levels,while for countries with high economic levels,the impact is not significant;the proportion of female labor force has a significant positive impact on countries with high economic levels,but has a certain negative impact on countries with low economic levels;The increase of the employment proportion of the tertiary industry plays a greater role in promoting the green development of countries with high economic levels,while the improvement of the human development index is more likely to drive the green development of countries with low economic levels.The sixth part summarizes the main conclusions of the paper,and expounds the revelation for China’s green development from demographics,including: rational adjustment of birth policy,make full use of elderly population dividend,promotion of gender balance,optimization of industry and employment structure,correctly guide the urbanization process,focus on improving the quality of the population. |
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