| With the continuous development of modern society,the aging of the population has become more and more significant,and social phenomena such as “not wealthy first” and“421 inverted pyramid family structure” have become increasingly prominent.Since Shanxi Province officially entered the ageing population stage,the aging trend has become increasingly severe.The solution to the problem of aging concerns the healthy and stable development of economic construction,social security and consumer savings.This paper has studied this issue in depth from a spatial perspective and has further enriched the geographical significance of this research.This article takes the Shanxi province's city and county as the research objects,according to the process of population aging in Shanxi Province and the work cycle of China's population census,taking 2000 and 2010 as the time nodes,and integrating the population census and socio-economic data of Shanxi Province,selecting the old age population coefficient The ratio of the proportion of the elderly population to the age-to-age ratio of the two single indicators,first compared the characteristics of changes in the time and spatial sequence of the two-level study units in Shanxi Province in 2000 and 2010,and then used the spatial autocorrelation method to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the aging of the county population in Shanxi Province.Explained,finally using the geographically weighted regression model to analyze the natural changes affecting population aging,economic development,health care,and cultural education and other factors.Research indicates:The aging population in Shanxi Province is relatively high and tends to increase.From the perspective of the province's overall level,since 1964,the proportion of the elderly population in Shanxi Province has begun to increase year by year.By the year 2010,the aging situation has been severe.In this phase of research,11 cities and 119 counties in Shanxi Province have all entered the age-old society in 2010.Although Shanxi Province has entered the ageing society at a later time,it is aging at a faster pace.The spatial difference of population aging in Shanxi Province is significant,and there are certain differences in different research scales.The refinement of the scale makes the population aging index and age-to-old ratio distribution regions show more significant local regional aggregation patterns.The population aging of the county units in Shanxi Province has a significant positive spatial correlation.The spatial agglomeration features are obvious,and the spatial agglomeration effect increases from 2000 to 2010.From a local point of view,the population hotspots for aging population in Shanxi Province in 2000 were mainly distributed in Yangquan City and Ganzhou City.In 2010,there was a situation of “one big and three small”.The cold spot area gathered to the south to form a “normalized” trend.The hotspot area has become larger and the cold spot area has been reduced.The overall population ageing level is balanced.The degree of influence of each influencing factor on the aging of the population in different regions is different from the positive and negative correlations,and it shows certain regular characteristics.Among them,the mortality rate and the number of health beds per1,000 people have an impetus for the aging of the county population in Shanxi Province,and the birth rate and average years of education have an inhibitory effect on it.However,at the county level,the impact of GDP on the aging population in Shanxi Province is not very significant.From 2000 to 2010,the main effect was to suppress and promote the population first.Based on the actual situation of population aging in Shanxi Province,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects: population policy,industrial structure,resource allocation and pension industry. |
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