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Construction Of Early Warning Index System Of Water Resources Security In Henan Province

Posted on:2020-05-20Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:D D LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2417330575497952Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Henan Province is a large population province with a relatively sharp contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the early warning indicators of water resources security in Henan Province.At the theoretical level,there are few studies on the safety of water resources in Henan Province,and there are few studies on the construction of water resources security early warning indicator system.It is necessary to strengthen relevant theoretical research.Therefore,this paper studies the construction of water resources security early warning indicator system in Henan Province.analysis.Based on the research results,suggestions for ensuring water resources security in Henan Province are proposed from the aspects of improving carrying capacity and establishing an early warning organization system,in order to alleviate the water crisis.Based on the research area,this paper describes the basic profiles of natural geography,water resources and water environment in Henan Province,and analyzes the goal of building a water resources security early warning indicator system.Under the guidance of the concept of water resources security and the construction of indicators,the water resources security early warning indicator system was established,which included 1 target layer,3 criteria layers and 15 early warning indicators,and built a police,police,and police.Four warning levels such as heavy police.Based on the index system constructed in Henan Province,based on the water resources related data of Henan Province from 2007 to 2017,the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method was used to determine the index weights,and the efficacy coefficient method was used to evaluate the water resources security status of Henan Province over the years.The network model trains the state of water resources security in Henan Province and uses the trained model to predict.Finally,based on the results of the empirical analysis,the relevant recommendations are made.The research results show that the constructed water resources security early warning indicator system of Henan Province is not only effective,but also fits the actual situation of Henan Province.In 2007-2017,most of the water resources in Henan Province were in the state of light police and middle police,and there was a difference in the security status between the early warning indicators.At the same time,the water resources data of Henan Province from 2007 to 2017 was used as the input variable of BP neural network model.The training,testing and early warning of water resources security status in Henan Province were carried out.The results show that the BP neural network model has better prediction effect and predicts.Results: In 2018,the water resources security of Henan Province was generally in the middle police alert;the water resources conditions were in the light police alert;the water resources utilization status was in the police alert;the water resources ecological status was in the police alert.
Keywords/Search Tags:water resources security, Early warning indicator system, efficiency coefficient method, BP neural network
PDF Full Text Request
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