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Study On The Social Risk Early-warning Indicator System In Transition Period

Posted on:2012-04-04Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Q CengFull Text:PDF
GTID:1267330425455049Subject:Sociology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Concerning about risks and harmony is an eternal topic of the human society. At present, China is during the critical period of social transformation and economic transition, facing many threats and challenges of social risks. How to strengthen the early-warning of social risks, to construct a scientific and practical social risk early-warning indicator system consistent with China’s conditions are currently the major theoretical and practical issues which people are confronted with. Only through the construction of index systems, people can accurately identify the social risks, timely monitor the status of social risks, master the degree and energies of social risks, promptly release the alarms of risks, thus providing reference for risk management decision-making and implementation of risk management practices of government departments, and accordingly carrying out certain government interventions and social actions to control risks within the scope of social tolerance. Consequently, social risk early-warning indicator system is an inevitable choice to build a harmonious society and realize the benign operation and coordinated development of the society. Based on the ideas, this paper is to analyze the major social risk sources during the transition period under the guidance of domestic and foreign relevant theories, discuss the structure models of index system construction, and construct a set of social risk early-warning indicator systems based on scientific methods, which can be used in the comprehensive assessments of social risks in the transformation period. The research is not only a major issue of current academic studies but also urgent for social management practice areas, being attached great theoretical values and practical significance.Major concerns of this paper include:Which theories does the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system need to draw nutrients; how to turn abstract theories into concrete indicators; what kind of methods can be adopted to select indicators and determine the weights; how to conduct comprehensive evaluations of risks? In short, construction of social risk early-warning indicator system associated with guidance of scientific theories and applications of methods are the two keys.Accordingly, the main contents include:Introduction. Mainly to explain the origins and significance of this study, review and comment on existent research domestically and abroad, define the key concepts and interpret the language logic and research methods.The first chapter looks into the theoretical basis of social risk warning, discusses risk society theory, social conflict theory and social anomie theory’s instructive significance in the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system. The second chapter will analyze Chinese society risk sources in transition period, providing realistic basis for the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system. Firstly, discuss the internal logic of social transformation and social risks, revealing the relationship of industrialization, urbanization, marketization, globalization and social risks. Secondly, according to the development status of Chinese society in transition period, explore and study the basic status of key social risks currently, in particular, concerning about structural and institutional risks linked with people’s livelihood, which includes population risks, risks of economic life, social life, and political life, cultural and psychological risks and ecological risks. Besides, it is worth noting that this chapter studies risks of social life from the aspect of the entities of social life. Finally, analyze the compound, structural, diffuse, multiple, high-risk and other characteristics of social risks in transition period, which depicts China’s social risk picture during transformation period.Chapter three will discuss the structural models of the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system. The process of the construction of social indicator system is essentially the gradual operation process from theories to models and then to indicators. Structural models combine abstract theories and specific indicators, so as to provide strong theoretical support and methodological guidance for further designation of indicator systems. This chapter proposes social risk scene in transition period, three-dimensional map of construction of social risk early-warning indicator system, analyzing time-dimensional structure models and logic structure models of the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system in details.Chapter four constructs social risk early-warning indicator system of Chinese society in transition period. This is the focus of this paper, focusing on the basic principles and starting points of indicator system construction, designing the basic framework of social risk early-warning indicator system which consists of six primary indicators, nineteen secondary indicators and forty-eight third-level indicators on the basis of expert consultation methods and social statistics data analysis, and explaining the meanings of specific indicators.Chapter five will determine the weights of indicators of different levels of social risk early-warning indicator system. Relying on expert advice, adopt a series of technical means such as cluster analysis, power method, weighted similarity coefficient to combine expert’s subjective judgments and statistical techniques as well as qualitative and quantitative research, thus ensuring the scientificity of determination of weights.Chapter six comprehensively evaluates the risk situations of the Chinese society in transition period. According to the social risk early-warning indicator system established in this paper, collect various statistical data and survey data, make dimensionless transformation of early-warning indicators and construct comprehensive evaluation models of social risks, to do comprehensive assessments of the current situations of China’s society risks, and to calculate the overall risk index values and the values of risks of secondary indicators.Chapter seven is the conclusion part. Mainly to make a comprehensive induction and promotion of related theoretical and methodological issues involved in this study, and on this basis, propose questions to be further explored.
Keywords/Search Tags:social risk, social risk early-warning, indicator system, weights, comprehensiveevaluation
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