The Long-term Demographic Impact Of China's Female Deficit,1980-2100

Thanks to the development of social and economy,the survival of China's population have improved substantially.It is noticeable,however,the women's survival improvement benefited from socioeconomic progress is less than that of men.In China,The entrenched son preference rooted in traditional culture,coupled with the sex discrimination against female still jeopardize the survival and development rights of women.From the prospective of demography,due to the skewed sex ratio at birth and the excess female mortality over the past decades,female in China have undertaken high survival risk,which led to the continuous deficit of female population.Female deficit is also known as missing women.The accumulative effect formed by the removal of missing women and their reproductive potential,has brought about a considerable demographic consequences in the present and the future.This paper uses the cohort-component projection method to estimate and forecast the age and sex structure of population from 1980 to 2100.Based on the demographic trends,this paper aims to reveal the impact of female deficit produced after 1980s on the long-term demographic consequence in China.Because the remarkable impact of female deficit on the population is different during periods from 1980 to 2100,analysis includes two stages:first,estimating the number of missing women in 1980-2015 to measure the extent of female deicit;second,using the indicators of population size and population structure to explore the impact of female deficit on future population development.The results show that female deficit under the context of high birth sex ratio and female mortality level is more and more serious,which has a profound impact on the long-term development of China's population:(1)women's survival has been improving continuously,but compared with male in China and female in developed countries,women in China has relative survival disadvantages,mainly manifests as the unusual high sex ratio at birth and excess female mortality rate.As a result,the problem of female deficit in poopulation comes into being;(2)Influenced by the skewed sex ratio at birth and excess female moratality rate from 1980s?the number of missing women in China is growing rapidly.The magnititude of missing women from 1980 to 2015 reached 28.38 million,which mainly distribute in the young and old age,accounting for 4.23%of the total female population.(3)According to the predicted population trends in 21st century,the perennial skewed sex ratio at birth and excess female moratality rate and growing magnititude of female deficit will accelerate the negative population growth of China in the future,reduce the size of the birth population,push up the gender ratio of all age groups,deteriorate the gender imbalance of the total population and marriageable population,alleviate the pressure of child rearing and aggravate the burden of the elderly support.If the skewed sex ratio at birth and excess female moratality rate in China drop back to normal range and no more female deficit generate in 2030,the absolute population size of China will fall to 976 million in 2100,and the average number of births per year will be 9.67 million.The sex ratio of the total population and marriageable population aged 20-49 is 1.04 and 1.06.The number of surplus marriageable males reach to 9.12 millions.The ratio of children's dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio is 25%and 44%respectively.In the future,it's of crucial importance to focus on improving women's survival,strengthen gender imbalance Governance,and promote gender equality.We should take effective measures to guarantee women's right to receive similar nutritional and medical attention and general health care like men,which benefits the fair,equal,equilibrium and sustainable developing of the future population and society.