The Research On The Imbalanced Sex Ratio At Birth Based On HLM Method

Since the mid-eighties of the last century, the family planning policy in reducing the scale of fertility and population control achieved significant results, but at the same time, the imbalance in sex ratio at birth is gradually emerging and becoming more serious. Birth Gender Imbalance in the context of this reality, the objective analysis of current situation and characteristics of the scientific and rational analysis of birth sex ratio imbalance in the deep-seated reason, has become an important issue is related to the sustainable development of the population must be addressed.In recent years, the continuing imbalance of sex ratio at birth to the population itself, as well as socio-economic development of many adverse effects, by the universal concern of the population academia, academic experts and scholars a great deal of research. Review of the literature can be seen, the reasons for the imbalance in sex ratio at birth study, the focus covers the following areas: birth culture, national family planning policy, the level of socio-economic development, scientific and technical means, survey error.On the basis of previous research, this study on the ideas and methods of innovation, starting from the current situation and characteristics of the Sex Ratio at Birth in China, analyze the impact and harm of the birth sex ratio imbalance. Related factors and mechanism influencing factors based on the combination of theory and reality. Specification analysis and empirical analyzes of combining research methods, the use of hierarchical linear model (the Hierarchical Linear Model, referred to as HLM) analysis method analyzes the interaction of the development of socio-economic factors and fertility policy factors that affect the sex ratio at birth, and thus will conclusions as the theoretical basis for decision-makers, scientific policy analysis and rational decision-making program.In this paper, after analyzing the reasons for the imbalanced sex ratio at birth, the specific mechanism of action of related factors:whether the economic and social development factors, population, fertility, and policy factors, fertility and cultural factors, technical factors, the sex ratio at birth are not independent or parallel, but, this mechanism is complex and layered.The author believes that the birth culture in China, with a preference for boys,"long-term throughout the process of social and economic development, this concept of birth culture by the reality behind productivity and social development, and with the social, economic the slow change. However, it is compared with the economic and social development with a strong continuity and the lag in economic and social transition period, the factors that impact on people’s reproductive behavior still exists. It is because of the strong preference for boys has been in the social reality of fetal sex identification illegal sex selective termination of pregnancy surgery techniques in fertility management is not scientific and perfect in real life, making fertility boy not only the ideals and aspirations, but also has real-world conditions. In other words, the preference for boys is caused by the sex ratio imbalance induced factors, and the technical means to achieve the conditions. Socio-economic factors and demographic factors of fertility policy in support of social fertility and cultural background and the technical conditions interact to produce a final impact and interaction of the sex ratio at birth.Whether it is from the perspective of the reality and the theoretical description of the empirical analysis of the conclusions of the family planning policy as an external interference factors undoubtedly born population sex structure of the most direct and significant impact. Meanwhile, the implementation of the same areas of fertility policy, the impact of policies on the sex ratio at birth there are also regional differences, that is, by the impact of different socio-economic development level, the effect of significantly different.According to the empirical conclusion, the urbanization rate, the education index for the family planning policy on the sex ratio at birth negative influence played a weakening effect. At the same time, GDP per capita index for the family planning policy on the sex ratio at birth negative influence has played a significant strengthening role. The conclusion of the comprehensive empirical analysis shows that the role of social and economic development for the sex ratio at birth, balanced with a "double-edged sword". According to the conclusions of this study, for the realization of birth sex ratio of the equilibrium, the author proposes the following policy recommendations:First, to accelerate the transformation of economic development; second, to accelerate the pace of urbanization; Third, strengthening education, changes in the traditional childbearing attitudes; fourth, improve the social welfare policies, to enhance the social old-age security.