A Study On The Influence Of Universal Two-Child Policy On China's Population Structure And Public Pensions

At present,China's society is characterized by aging.In China,which is still in the developing stage,it is a heavy topic.The huge retirement population and the rapidly rising old-age dependency have brought tremendous pressure on China's pension business.Under this background,the state has issued a “comprehensive two-child” policy,hoping to improve the current ageing society in China and ease The pressure of pensions provides assistance for China's economic transformation and sustained economic development.However,the effect of this policy on improving population structure and relieving pension pressure remains to be studied.This paper uses the population data of the National Bureau of Statistics as of 2017 to use PADIS-INT to predict the total population,labor force and dependency ratio of the comprehensive two-child 2020 to 2050 in the case of compromise,pessimism,and optimism.Analyze the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on China's total population and population structure under different fertility wishes,and conclude that this policy can improve China's population structure to some extent,ease the aging process and ease the pressure on pensions,but in the long run The fertility will have a greater impact on the implementation of the policy,so it is still necessary to encourage people's willingness to bear and ensure the implementation of the policy.In addition,this paper establishes a generational overlapping model of two-way altruism and endogenous growth,considering the gift(support)and inheritance,and the educational cost of raising children in the individual utility function,and expressing the child to the parents with the support rate minus the gift rate.The intergenerational net transfer rate,and use this indicator to indicate family pension.This paper analyzes the equilibrium growth equilibrium of the generation overlap model,analyzes the relationship between birth rate and corporate contribution rate,per capita effective output,and intergenerational net transfer rate,and finds the optimal selection range of corporate contribution rate under the comprehensive two-child policy.Theoretically,it is explored that the comprehensive two-child policy encourages the net transfer of children to their parents,which helps to increase family pension and ease the pressure on public pensions in China.At the same time,this paper also compares and analyzes the consumer's personal optimal and central planner's optimal equilibrium solution,and concludes that the endowment insurance under the optimal social configuration has higher demand for family pension.