Study On The Second-child Fertility Desire In Hebei Province Based On The Universal Two-child Policy

In order to deal with the problems of population aging and the lack of labor resources.In2016,our country began to implement “the universal two-child policy” to adjust the fertility condition of our country and improve the structure of the age of population.How will people's fertility intentions,population age structure and the influencing factors will be after “the universal two-child policy”? It is worth to research systematically.Taking Hebei province as an example.First,investigated the one-child family's second child birth after “the universal two-child policy”.Then,predicted the population data in Hebei province by the questionnaire data and other relevant data with the help of cohort-component method and padis-int.Finally,used binary discrete choice model to analyze the influencing factors of the second-child's fertility desire.The study found that: The second-child birth doesn't increase significantly in Hebei province after “the universal two-child policy”.Hebei province's population aging degree is still very serious,presenting the rising trend.“The universal two-child policy” expected effect is not ideal.Through factors analysis found that:First child's cost of education and the attitude to whether parents have two children and other factors will decide whether to have two children significantly.Finally,put forward some suggestions about the influencing factors.Hope to stimulate “the universal two-child policy”better by these methods.