Research On The Effect Of Population Aging On The Income And Expenditure Of Pension Insurance Fund In Jiangsu Province

The population aging is one of the most concerned problems in today's society.Jiangsu Province entered the aging society in 1986.The level of population aging is significantly higher than The national average,and the problem of population ageing is outstanding.As the deepening of the population aging,its impact on the pension insurance funds is also growing.The research on the effect of population aging on the pension insurance fund in Jiangsu Province will help deepen the understanding of population aging and achieve the balance of income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund under the background of population aging.Firstly,the paper analyzes the development of population aging in Jiangsu Province.Through the compilation and analysis of the population data of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2017,it is found that the population ageing in Jiangsu Province is large,the age of the elderly is high,and the development speed is higher,the characteristics of fast and old-age care are higher.Secondly,based on the sixth census data,the evolution trend of population aging in Jiangsu Province is predicted.According to the adjustment of Jiangsu's fertility policy,the total fertility rate plan for low,middle and high women of childbearing age is set.The Leslie matrix model was used to predict the population age structure of Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2050.Based on the logistic curve fitting model to complement the floating population data,the equal-dimension gray model was used to carry out the floating population in Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2050.It is predicted that the combined forecast results show that although the floating population has moderated the aging of Jiangsu's population to a certain extent,the future population aging of Jiangsu Province is still high,and the development speed is still relatively fast.This paper focuses on the effect of population aging on pension insurance fund in Jiangsu.Firstly,it introduces the pension insurance system under the background of population aging in Jiangsu Province.After many reforms,it has gradually established a multi-level pension insurance system.However,there are still insufficient coverage of pension insurance and differences in the level of urban and rural pension insurance fund collection.The relationship between pension insurance between regions is difficult to transfer and other issues.Then,the status quo of Jiangsu pension insurance fund is analyzed.It is found that the income and expenditure scale of Jiangsu pension fund has increased year by year,but the balance of income and expenditure has been reduced year by year.At the same time,the pension insurance fund of Jiangsu Province has a wide coverage and the number of participants.The amount of pensions is also increasing year by year;followed by the analysis of the impact of population aging on the income and expenditure of pension funds,and the increase in the proportion of the elderly population and life expectancy has greatly increased the expenditure of pension funds,due to the elderly The increase in the size of the population has led to a decrease in the proportion of the working population,which has also affected the income of the pension fund.Finally,the empirical analysis of the income and expenditure of the pension fund in Jiangsu Province is based on the aging of the population.The main variables,and select the pension insurance policy indicator "per capita basic pension" and economic development indicators "per capita GDP" as the expenditure model control variables,select the policy economic indicators "average wages of employees in the post" and policy indicators "number of participants " As a revenue model control variable,the model results show that 60 years old or older The proportion of the population in the year is positively correlated with the expenditure of the pension fund,and negatively correlated with the income of the pension fund.Based on the expected results of population aging in jiangsu province,it is further predicted that the income and expenditure of pension fund in jiangsu province will increase sharply from 2018 to 2050,but the increase in expenditure is greater than the increase in income.Comprehensive analysis of the income and expenditure forecast of pension insurance fund in 2018-2050 found that with the aging of the population,the income and expenditure gap of Jiangsu pension insurance fund will continue to shrink in the future,and eventually the pension insurance fund will not cover the expenditure.Finally,according to the results of empirical analysis,this paper proposes policy suggestions to alleviate the population aging and promote the balance of pensions and pensions in Jiangsu Province,including the experience of pension insurance reform in developed countries,the implementation of the “two-child” policy in accordance with the law,and the delay in retirement age.Encourage the elderly to re-employ,strengthen the management of pension funds,and actively develop the pension and health services industry.