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The Forecast Of The Trend Of Population Aging In Sichuan Province And Its Impact On The Social Pension Insurance Fund Expenditure

Posted on:2017-08-24Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M L ZhongFull Text:PDF
GTID:2347330512456634Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Sichuan province is one of the China's most populous province. Based on the analysis of 2010 sixth national population census data, it is known that, the resi-dent population of Sichuan province has been more than 80 million, accounting for 6% of the national population. Its population ranked fourth in all provinces and municipalities and autonomous regions in the country, only less than the total pop-ulation of Guangdong, Shandong and Henan province. That coincide with the huge population province, the ageing population of Sichuan province is also in the fore-front in the country, just less than Chongqing, and ranked the second among all provinces and autonomous regions.Trace the development process of population aging of Sichuan province and combining the international measure of population aging, Sichuan province has entered the aging society in 2000. According to the 2000 fifth national population census, the elderly people aged 60 and above in Sichuan province has more than 9 million, accounting for the permanent population in Sichuan province has more than 10%, the number of the elderly people aged 65 and above has reached 6.232 million, accounting for 7.24% of the total population of Sichuan province, while the national average for the indicator is only 6.96%. And according to the 2010 sixth national population census data,that Sichuan province has 13 million old people aged 60 and above, the proportion of the population was 16.3%,3.04% higher than the national average level,. The elderly people aged 65 and above ac-counted for more than 10% of the population, more than two percentage points higher than the national average level.The rapid development of the aging and increasement of the elderly popula-tion have an important influence on the social security pension spending and in-crease the financial burden. At present, the development of the aging makes the working population ratio is on the decline, the increasing length of education leads to the initial employment age of the workforce increase, these reasons make the collecting pay of social endowment insurance restricted and the real pay time shortened which lead do the growth of the pension restricted. But with the contin-uous development of aging population, the expectancy life is continuous increas-ing and the proportion of elderly population is also continuous increasing. The two factors lead to the scale of the social security pension spending bigger year by year, which brings a great challenge to the balance of the endowment insurance fund and even to the healthy development of the endowment insurance in our country.In the context of this reality, this article combines the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method, choosing the ageing population in Sichuan province as the research object. Based on the summary analysis of domestic and foreign research about the ageing and related problem, this article has analyzed the particularity of aging development in Si-chuan province and establishes Leslie matrix model according to the census data, and then analyses the trend of the aging development through the excel iterative. Then the author makes a quantitative analysis of the aging effects on endowment insurance fund expenditure through the establishment of the regression model. Fi-nally, the author has a summary analysis of the important steps dealing with an ageing population the developed countries used, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to deal with the aging problem for the Sichuan government.As the big population province of China and the western big economic prov-ince, the situation of social and economic development, geographical and popula-tion environment of Sichuan province has its own particularity. The factors affect-ing the development of the aging are also different compared with other provinces. At present, as the "comprehensive two children" policy execution, the factors af-fecting the development of ageing also change. Second, as a big population flow province, Sichuan province has a sizeable net outflow of population every year, and the outflow of population are mainly young adults. In Sichuan province, the outflow of population makes further declines in the proportion of the workforce and more pressure on aging. However, with the deepening of the western devel-opment, the continuous development of economy in Sichuan province will provide more employment opportunities for the working population and a more comforta-ble job environment, these factors will inevitably make the status of the population outflows in Sichuan province slower and even reduce. Therefore, when analyzing about 30%, the elderly population aged 65 and above will begin to decline from the peak, but its total also remain above 17 million, the proportion of total popula-tion is more than 20%.Fourth, there is a positive correlation between the elderly dependency ratio and basic endowment insurance spending, namely that with the rising of the elder-ly dependency ratio in Sichuan province, endowment insurance fund spending also increase in Sichuan, and the elderly dependency ratio increases 1%, the endow-ment insurance fund spending will increase 2.52 billion. Visible, along with the development of the aging population, the endowment insurance fund expenditure of Sichuan province will continue to increase, which means that the economic wealth created by the whole society would have more parts to be used for pension spending, this will further increase the pressure of pension funds, and increase the burden of on-the-job personnel. And finally it will affect on-the-job personnel's further work enthusiasm,the residents' savings and investment, which is not con-ducive to the development of social economy.Fifth, there is a positive correlation between elderly dependency ratio and basic endowment insurance of Sichuan province, that is rising as the elderly de-pendency ratio of Sichuan province, endowment insurance fund of Sichuan prov-ince is also increasing.The innovation points of this article has the following two points:Firstly, in this paper, we are in the micro perspective, and select the ageing population in Sichuan province as the research object and fully consider the spe-cialty of the fertility rate in Sichuan province on the effects of aging.Secondly, we put the population flow factors into the aging forecast model, considering the floating population age structure's influence on the development of the aging population.
Keywords/Search Tags:Sichuan province, Population aging, Total fertility rate, Two child policy, Population flow, Leslie matrix model, Pension fund expenditure
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