The Impact Of The Aging Population On The Basic Old-Age Insurance For Urban Workers In Beijing

With the continuous development of population aging,the impact on the basic old-age insurance has become more and more important.In this paper,the results of the population forecast in Beijing show that in 2050 the number of elderly population in Beijing will reach nearly 8 million,about 3.8 times the number of children.In the context of the gradual extension of the per capita life expectancy,the size of the elderly population in Beijing continues to expand,so that the elderly dependency ratio continues to rise,which has brought tremendous pressure on the basic old-age insurance for workers in Beijing.First of all,on the basis of demography,economics and social security theory,establish the population forecast model,analysis of the next period of time the age structure of Beijing population changes in the aging population and structural trends,trends and problems,forecast shows the city of Beijing in the future will further deepen the degree of population aging.Secondly,on the basis of the population forecast of Beijing from 2011 to 2050,through the literature research and policy interpretation,the paper deeply analyzes the influence of the process of population aging in Beijing on the pension insurance for employees.This article from the two dimensions of social endowment insurance payments as the starting point to establish the prediction model,the results of the study show that the condition formula of Beijing city workers pension insurance fund balance of payments for insurance rate multiplied by the payment index multiplied by a rate equal to the elderly dependency ratio multiplied by the rate of substitution.In the Logistic block model for average wage of workers in Beijing in the future forecast,forecast data into the population of Beijing City,Beijing city to empirical research methods to explore the impact of population aging on the future of social endowment insurance fund balance.Finally,from the aging response to the population of western welfare state and other policy measures,demography,political science,economics and social insurance based on the relevant theories provide theoretical and policy suggestions for the aging of population in Beijing city and the sustainable development of the endowment insurance.Research shows that the population structure of Beijing will bring about an aging population crisis.The deepening of the aging of population in Beijing will lead to the basic old-age insurance payment crisis without further intervention and appropriate policy adjustments.This is the focus and difficulty to control the level of pension insurance spending growth.At the same time,combined with the analysis on the influence factors including on-the-job worker average wage level of pension expenditure,to represent the general trend,aging of the population around the world.on the one hand,the government,enterprises and even individuals should pay attention to the impact of population aging on endowment insurance in all aspects of the expenditure of water equality of social economy,fully aware of the elderly society value,properly solve the social pension problems of the elderly population.On the other hand,the state should take economic development as the key to ease the pressure of pension insurance expenditure,improve the workforce's scientific and technological level and overall quality,realize the sustainable development of the endowment insurance system fundamentally.Beijing City,the aging of the population balance of basic pension insurance with the aging of the population from the deepening of the increasingly significant,Beijing future population aging index of the elderly dependency ratio will directly determine the balance of payments has reached a basic old-age insurance;in the insurance rate constant,the relative level of payment(payment index)under the premise,the same rate,the elderly dependency ratio is inversely related to the pension replacement rate,if the elderly dependency ratio increased,only by reducing the level of pension replacement to achieve;the basic old-age insurance in Beijing city workers to maintain the balance of payments,the government may take measures are: increase the participation rate(has been approaching the limit,adjust the space limited),adjust the payment index,the proportion of payment(units and individuals),the level of retirement pension replacement.