The Changing Process Of China's Fertility Level From The International Perspective

Under the background of China's current low fertility level and birth policy adjustment,it is of great practical significance to explore the evolution of China's fertility level.However,due to the poor quality of fertility data,China's true fertility level has long been a mystery.Considering the close relationship between fertility pattern and fertility level,this paper attempts to analyze the changing process of China's fertility level from the perspective of fertility pattern.Specifically,this paper uses the data from Human Fertility Database,China's population censuses and related population sample surveys to explore the overall changing process of China's fertility pattern and fertility level since 1950.Furthermore,it also analyzes the urban-rural difference and provincial difference in China and compares China with other countries and regions.At the same time,this paper refers to the research method of researches concerning the age pattern of mortality,focusing on the dispersion of the fertility pattern.This paper finds out that China's fertility pattern gradually changed into a modern type by showing a generally rising trend of the standard deviation in the mean age at birth of parity 1 and the mean age at birth at parity 1.This transition is consistent with the general laws of developed countries and regions.Although there are some regional differences in the transition progress,the fertility patterns of rural area,urban area and each province have all changed to a modern type.Their standard deviation in the mean age at birth of parity 1 and the mean age at birth at parity 1 have also risen to the range of developed countries and regions.Further connecting the fertility level with fertility pattern,this paper finds that the changing process of these two are both “compressed” because their changing speeds are much faster than that of developed countries and regions.However,the transition time of the two is not synchronized: China's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level in the early 1990 s,while the standard deviation in the mean age at birth of parity 1,reflecting the dispersion of fertility pattern,has been at a very low level for a long time.And it rose to the range of developed countries and regions after 2005.This indicates that after China's fertility level has dropped to a low fertility level for about 10 years,the fertility pattern has finally reached a substantial match with it.Therefore,China's low fertility level after 2005 is more likely to be the real reflection of female fertility intention with the change of fertility culture.And the timing of the birth policy adjustment has already appeared at this time.Looking into the future,with the further transformation of fertility pattern,there is a high risk of decline in the fertility level in China.But at this time,compared to developed countries and regions,the mean age at birth in China is relatively early,and the standard deviation in the mean age at birth as well as the fertility culture are not stable.Therefore,we should seize this limited opportunity to encourage childbirth and improve relevant policies and supporting measures.In this way,China's fertility rate will have the chance to rise to a moderate level in the future.