Research On Uncertainty Measurement Of Commercial Housing Market In China From The Perspective Of Subjective Expectation Bias

In the new era of deepening reform and opening up in China,the economic structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded.However,in recent years,due to the internal economic restructuring and the complexity of the external environment,the economy is facing downward pressure and economic uncertainty is increasing,which has brought great hidden dangers to China's economic growth.Previous studies have shown that economic uncertainty can lead to changes in macroeconomic variables from real option effect,growth option effect,preventive savings effect and financial frictional effect,and lead to cyclical fluctuations in the economy.In order to ensure the stable operation of macro-economy and reduce the impact of economic uncertainty,scholars at home and abroad began to study economic uncertainty.However,at present,the research on the measurement of economic uncertainty is still in its infancy,especially the domestic research on it is less.In this context,it is necessary to find a suitable measurement method to reflect the economic uncertainty of our country.This paper follows the research ideas from asking questions,literature research,theoretical analysis to empirical research.Mainly for the uncertainty measurement of commercial housing market,through the analysis of various existing measurement methods,combined with the actual situation of our country,using web crawler and natural language processing technology,the real estate forum posting as the public's subjective expectation,through the quantification of subjective expectations and deviation measurement,thus building the uncertainty index of commercial housing market,finally.Through explaining and comparing the uncertainty index of commercial housing market,it shows that the index constructed in this paper can reflect the economic uncertainty of our country to a certain extent.In the process of concrete research,the importance of studying the measurement of economic uncertainty is analyzed firstly.Then,through combing the literature of foreign research on the measurement of economic uncertainty,four basic ideas of studying the measurement of economic uncertainty are summarized,which are capital market index agent,macroeconomic index agent,media index agent and subjective expectation bias.Four kinds of research ideas are analyzed and evaluated,and the core ideas and shortcomings of various existing measurement methods are pointed out.Next,through the study of uncertainty and its theoretical development,we believe that economic uncertainty actually refers to the inconsistency of expectations and views of economic participants on the future,which also puts forward the meaning of uncertainty in the commodity housing market.Further,according to the meaning of economic uncertainty,this paper points out that in order to accurately measure the economic uncertainty of our country,we need to measure the uncertainty in various economic fields separately,but this is a huge and complex project.Therefore,considering the actual situation of our country,we should choose to measure the uncertainty of the commercial housing market,which can also better reflect the economic uncertainty of our country.Certainty.Finally,from the perspective of subjective expectation bias,this paper measures the uncertainty of China's commercial housing market by using Web text mining,and constructs the uncertainty index of China's commercial housing market.The research finds that the uncertainty of China's commercial housing market has been in a low position for more than a year.In December 2017,the uncertainty of China's commercial housing market was the lowest,but reached a peak in July 2018.By comparing with the major events that caused heated discussion in the real commercial housing market,this paper argues that the uncertainty index of the commercial housing market can be compared.The uncertainty of China's commercial housing market can be well measured from the perspective of public expectations.Secondly,the uncertainty index of commercial housing market in this paper is validated by using the widely used uncertainty index of economic policy.The correlation coefficient is 0.77,which shows that the uncertainty index of commercial housing market in this paper can also reflect some information of economic uncertainty in China.Compared with previous studies,the innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following points:Firstly,the existing methods of measuring economic uncertainty are systematically sorted out,and the ideas and shortcomings of these methods are summarized.Combining with the meaning of economic uncertainty,this paper proposes that we should use the measurement idea of subjective expectation deviation to measure the uncertainty in various economic fields of our country,so as to comprehensively reflect the economic uncertainty of our country.Secondly,starting from the hot areas of public concern in our country,through the discussion of the important position of the real estate market in the economic field,we finally choose to measure the uncertainty of the commercial housing market,which can not only reflect the uncertainty of the commercial housing market in our country,but also reflect the economic uncertainty to a certain extent.Thirdly,this paper improves the inapplicability of the existing subjective expectation bias measurement methods in China.Because of the lack of relevant surveys on public subjective expectations,Web text mining technology is adopted to mine public expectations,which makes data acquisition more direct and more economical and time-saving.Due to the limited time and level of research,there are still some shortcomings to be improved in this paper.Firstly,in order to fully and truly reflect the economic uncertainty of our country,it may be necessary to measure more economic fields.Although the representative commercial housing market was chosen to measure in the research process,it still can not fully reflect the economic uncertainty of our country.Follow-up research can also choose employment,import and export fields to measure the uncertainty,so as to summarize.It reflects the uncertainties of China's economy.Secondly,in the process of demonstration,we choose to crawl the real estate Guanlan Forum to get the corresponding data.Because of the quality of data,follow-up research can also choose other real estate forums to obtain data,so as to verify the empirical results.Finally,the selected samples have a short time span,which may lead to some errors in the results.In the follow-up study,the number of samples can be increased appropriately to make the empirical results more accurate.