The Evaluation And Forecasting Research On Uncertainty Systems Method Of Student Achievement

Under the popularization of higher education, the scale of higher education constantly expanding, the reform of higher education has shifted focus from the expansion of school to the exaltation of quality. Affected by traditional educational system, our college students, especially the students of lower grades in the course of study are due to strong, the more passive, more often than not, of their studies there is a dynamic and the target. So it's crucial for the students to learn how to evaluate their effectiveness and predict their future achievements in the study, in order to formulate relevant training policies.Study system consists of teacher, student, course and the media etc. the effects of teaching and the results are outputs of system. In study system, the information media and the essential interaction between mechanism, the process of development and results can't make a detailed and concrete analysis.The student's examination results have taken a message. If we adopt a data generation and reduce data in random increase data in laws, we may set prediction models for each student's results. This article has deeply researched on the students' study state by using lots of uncertainty system methods.Firstly, by analyzing comprehensive results of college students, I determine the distribution characteristics of the college students using sk. scatter diagram; secondly, by establishing comprehensive assessment model, based on AHP comprehensive assessment model and DEA evaluation model, I evaluate students study state; Finally, by using the linear regression prediction model, the vague analysis prediction model, GM (1,1) prediction model and ARIMA(0,1,1) prediction model, I predict the students'results and determine the scope and effects for each model Ultimately.This article makes the assessment and prediction of college study state more scientific and reasonable, and proposes relevant methods of school-work warning. This article provides so valid scientific basis for drafting college management policies that it must be promising for application and valuable for research.