City Attraction?population Aggregation And Commercial Housing Price

After the reform of the housing system in 1998,the price of commercial housing in our country began to rise rapidly,and the difference between the regional housing prices also got bigger and bigger.In 2006,the average price of commercial housing in first-tier cities was 6,716 yuan /?,and it was 3,337 yuan /? in second-tier cities.While it rose to 21,689 yuan /? in first-tier cities and 8,575 yuan /? in second-tier cities by 2016.Population is the endogenous driving force for the price increase of urban commercial housing.Population size and population age structure have different impacts on the demand of urban housing market,and eventually affect the price,which leads to regional differences of the price of urban commercial housing.With the relaxation of the household registration system and the deepening of the reform and opening-up,China has seen a large-scale population movement.Large and mediumsized cities have seen a significant population gathering,while small cities have seen a large number of population outflow.On one hand,large and medium-sized cities with large population inflow are facing the pressure of high house prices;on the other hand,the population is still gathering in these cities.What is the attraction of these cities to those mobile population? Based on the regional differences in commercial housing prices,this paper studies the relationship between urban attraction and population aggregation,and the relationship between population aggregation and commercial housing prices,which intend to provide effective suggestions for stabilizing commercial housing prices,balancing regional development and improving people's livelihood.This paper adopts the principal component analysis method to construct the city attraction index.The city attraction has an impact on population aggregation from three aspects: employment environment,living environment and cultural facilities.On one hand,population aggregation can promote the city attraction by bringing convenience to the city development,and on the other hand,it will have side effects on the city attraction due to its large scale.Population aggregation and commercial housing prices also affect each other.Population expansion will stimulate the rise of commercial housing prices.When the " turning point" between the two elements occurs,the population will outflow.Based on the data of 65 cities from 2005 to 2016,this paper makes an empirical study and gets several findings.Firstly,the influence of city attraction on population aggregation is positive.The greater the city attraction is,the more obvious the population aggregation is.The factors that attract population aggregation in cities with low housing prices are relatively single.The impact of population aggregation on the attractiveness of cities is due to differences in the level of urban housing prices.The impact on cities with high housing prices is positive first and then negative.While the impact on cities with low housing prices is stably positive.Secondly,population aggregation plays a positive role in promoting city housing prices,and its influence is greater in cities with higher housing prices.However,excessively high housing prices will cause the outflow of population obviously.Thirdly,city attraction not only directly affects the price of commercial housing,but also indirectly affects the price of commercial housing through population aggregation.According to this,in order to promote the healthy development of the housing market and the balance of regional development,this paper puts forward four suggestions.Firstly,the real estate policy should match the specific conditions of each city,namely considering the impact of population gathering and house price fluctuation.Secondly,the scale of urban development should be rationally controlled and the structure of land supply should be effectively adjusted.Thirdly,more attention should be paid to the balance of regional development,especially the development of small and medium-sized cities with their own features.Fourthly,differentiated popular movement policies should be adopted.