Research On The Interaction Relationship Between Population Migration And The Price Of Commercial Housing

With the reform of household registration system and the acceleration of urbanization process,the number of population migration has gradually increased.The migration of population has an important impact on housing,and housing is also a problem that migrants need to face and solve.Under the background of rising commodity housing prices and increasing total population migration in China,it is of practical significance to study the relationship between population migration and commodity housing prices.The long-term development of the real estate market depends on the housing demand of the population.Therefore,this paper studies the two-way interaction between population spatial mobility and housing prices from the perspective of population migration at the urban level.Previous studies have not made a thorough theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism between population migration and commodity housing prices.This paper makes a thorough analysis of the interaction effect between the two,and at the same time,previous research data are mostly concentrated in provincial level data or single city level data.Based on the existing research,this paper takes 35 large and medium-sized cities as samples,and uses PVAR model to empirically analyze whether there is interaction effect between commodity housing price and population migration and whether there are different effects in different regions.The PVAR model can not only capture the individual effects between sections,but also study the impact of each endogenous variable on other endogenous variables through the normalized impulse response function.Finally,according to the empirical test results and the current situation of commodity housing prices and population migration in China,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations,in order to provide some reference for improving people's livelihood and realizing the healthy development of the housing market.Firstly,this paper defines the concepts of population migration and commodity housing price,and further points out the measurement methods of population migration,and sorts out relevant basic theories such as population migration theory,supply and demand theory and dual labor market.On this basis,it further analyzes the influence path between population migration and commodity housing price.In terms of the current situation,the scale change and spatial distribution of migrant population and the spatial and temporal distribution of commodity housing price are analyzed.Secondly,this paper incorporates population migration,commodity housing prices,economic growth and industrial structure into the analysis framework,and uses PVAR model to compare the interaction between population migration and commodity housing prices at the national level and the eastern,central and western regional levels.The main conclusions are that there is interaction between population migration and housing prices,and there are differences in the interaction between different regions,as follows:(1)Population migration in the whole country and the east and central regions has a weak positive effect on housing price in the short term.The increase of the net migration rate of population will bring about the increase of housing price in the short term,but it is not significant in the long term.The population migration in the western region only presented a positive effect in the first period,and then presented a negative effect.(2)Housing prices at the national level have a negative impact on population migration,that is,the areas with higher housing prices have a negative impact on population migration.The influence of housing prices on population migration is different in different regions.The negative effect of high housing prices on population migration in the central region is greater than that in the eastern region.High housing prices in the eastern region will inhibit population migration in a short time,and have a weak positive effect on population in the long run.The negative effect of housing prices on population migration in the western region is lagging behind.(3)Population migration will affect the rationalization level of industrial structure and the level of economic growth in the region,thus affecting housing prices.Population migration in the whole country and the eastern and central regions will promote the upgrading of industrial structure rationalization and economic growth.Population migration in the western region is not conducive to economic growth and the upgrading of industrial structure rationalization in the short term.The improvement of the rationalization level of industrial structure in the whole country and the eastern,central and western regions has a promoting effect on population migration.Finally,on the basis of these conclusions,combined with the current situation of population migration and commodity housing prices,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from two aspects: reasonable guidance of population migration and regulation of housing prices.Specifically,it includes further optimizing the industrial structure,strengthening urban construction,improving the level of economic development and attracting population inflow;regulating the housing supply structure,reasonably controlling the scale of land use,solving the basic housing needs of migrants,strictly controlling speculative behavior,and realizing the positive interaction between population migration and commodity housing prices.