An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Population Structure And Commodity Housing Price Based On VAR Model

The housing problem is closely related to people’s lives,and it is also closely related to China’s economic development.Therefore,changes in housing prices will not only have a significant impact on the daily lives of the people,but will also affect China’s future economic development.Therefore,research and analysis of the influencing factors of commodity housing prices have always been a hot spot in academia,and the policy changes of China’s housing supply system are mainly changed according to the changes in people’s demand for housing,so based on the perspective of population structure to study its price The impact is very necessary.By correctly understanding the relationship between population structure and commodity housing price changes,exploring the internal demographic factors of commodity housing supply and demand,and analyzing the transmission mechanism of commodity housing prices under equilibrium conditions are of great significance to the promotion of the healthy development of the commodity housing market.As the capital of Anhui Province,Hefei has made rapid progress in recent years,and the development of the commodity housing market is also remarkable.Therefore,this paper takes Hefei as a research sample,and selects the gender ratio,dependency ratio,family size,and population industry from three aspects of population structure(natural population structure,population socioeconomic structure,and population regional structure)according to demography.Seven indicators,such as structure,residents ’ disposable income,population migration structure,and non-agricultural population ratio,were used as independent variables to study the changes in commodity housing prices,and the effects of the indicators selected by the VAR model and related testing and research institutes on commodity housing prices were used.Finally,the empirical results show that the size of the household and the proportion of non-agricultural population have a greater positive impact on the price of commercial housing in Hefei.The population industrial structure,the disposable income of residents,and migration structure have a positive impact on the price of commercial housing in Hefei The sex ratio and dependency ratio have little effect on the price of commercial housing in Hefei.Therefore,combined with the empirical results,it advocates reasonable development policies such as rational development and construction of house types,reasonable control of the urbanization process,and promotion of the construction of a perfect population database.