A Research On The Current Situation And Formation Mechanism Of China's Population Mobility Network

China is in the process of building new type urbanization.The main goal of the current stage is to promote the population citizenization in a scientific and orderly manner,optimize the layout and form of urbanization,and promote regional coordinated development.Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has developed rapidly,developments have been uneven across regions,population mobility between regions have become increasingly active,and the scale of mobility has expanded rapidly.Studying the current situation and influence mechanism of population mobility has certain practical significance for guiding the scientific,orderly population mobility and promoting coordinated development between regions.Current research on population mobility usually uses statistical descriptions to analyze the current state of population mobility,and to explain the mechanisms of population mobility by socioeconomic indicators in various regions but lacks insight into the endogenous mechanisms of population mobility itself.The exponential random graph models study the formation of network relationships from the network structure,analyzes the network relationship from network structure factors,exogenous situation factors and actor attributes.Using the ERGMs to study the formation of population mobility network can better explain the mechanism of population flow impact.This paper uses the 2012 and 2014 China's floating population dynamic monitoring data,provinces social and economic indicators data from statistical yearbooks and provincial train mileage data.Using social network methods to study the current situation of population mobility,using the ERGMs to analyze the formation mechanism of population mobility network from static and dynamic perspectives,in order to further deepen the understanding of the population mobility and its impact mechanism.It provides a reference for guiding the scientific,orderly population mobility and promoting regional development.The main findings of this paper can be summarized as:First,understanding the status of each province from the network centrality indicators,the current population mobility in China still has a certain spatial orientation,mainly from the central and western regions to the eastern region.The Beijing-Tianjin region,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai regions and Guangdong region are the main population inflow areas,and Anhui,Henan,Hubei and Sichuan are the main population outflow areas.Zhejiang is the largest mobile transit province in the population mobility network.It attracts a large number of people from other provinces and there are a large number of local populations flowing to other provinces,and its role is constantly increasing.Second,from the network community structure,China's population mobility between provinces is closely related to the geographical location.There are population mobile communities in the northwest,northeast and southeast.Compared to different network communities,population mobility is more likely to occur between provinces within the same community.Third,the analysis of the formation mechanism of population mobility network found that population mobility is affected by the level and gap of social and economic development in various provinces.Population mobility is more unidirectional,and population mobility networks tend to embed transitive relationships rather than reciprocal relationships.The farther the province is,the higher the distance of transportation,the higher the flow cost,hindering the flow of people,and the population movement tends to flow to neighboring provinces in the household registration province.From the perspective of regional division,the regional economic level gap is smaller,and the population tends to flow across regions.Among the socio-economic attributes of provinces,the population of provinces with large population and high unemployment rate tends to flow out,while provinces with high economic level,low unemployment rate and developed tertiary industry tend to attract population inflows.The population scale of destination,the economic level of the outflow area,and the level of development of the secondary industry have no significant impact on population mobility.