Study On The Risk Warning Of Amateur Marathon Runners

Under the guidance of a series of national policy documents,marathon as a national fitness campaign quickly rolled out across the country.Due to the weak theoretical foundation and practical experience,as well as the uncertainty and complexity of competition risks,risk problems such as sudden death,injury and sudden accident occur frequently.As the main group of marathon participants,amateur runners are faced with more and more risks,which not only seriously affect the participating experience,but also threaten the safety of life.At present,the research on the risk of marathon runners in China is not perfect,especially the research on the theory system and risk warning of am ateur runners is very few.Based on the main theoretical basis of sports risk and system safety management,based on the existing research,this study combined qualitative and quantitative methods with empirical analysis to study the risk early warning of amateur marathon runners.It is devoted to constructing a reasonable and effective risk warning system for amateur marathon runners,and makes every effort to make the system have good universality and predictability.First of all,on the basis of clarifyi ng relevant theories,this study starts with the common risks faced by marathon runners,identifies the risk sources of amateur runners based on the system safety management theory,and constructs the early-warning indicators of marathon amateur runners' r isks.Then the early-warning indicators were screened and determined by means of the Delphi method.Finally,the early-warning index system including 5 first-level indicators,16 second-level indicators and 58 third-level indicators was constructed,and the weight of each indicator was evaluated quantitatively by using the analytic hierarchy processSecondly,BP neural network was used to build an early warning model for amateur marathon runners,and MATLAB software was used for model tra ining and testing.The application of questionnaire data of amateur runners in guangzhou marathon to verify the practicability and effectiveness of the model has achieved good results.Finally,according to the identified risk problems,an early-warning management system for the risk of amateur marathon runners was constructed,and the corresponding countermeasures were proposed according to the basic methods of risk response.The study can not only provide a theoretical reference for amateur marathon runne rs and related perso nnel,but also have practical significance to promote the development of marathon in China.Finally,in view of the identified risk problems,according to the basic methods to deal with the risks,specific coping strategies are proposed,and the risk early-warning management system for amateur marathon runners is constructed.The study not only provides a theoretical reference for amateur marathon runners and related personnel,but also has practical significance for promoting the health y development of mar athon events in China.