Research On The Impact Of China's Manufacturing Import And Export Trade On Employment Volatility

As a world factory rather than a “manufacturing power”,China's manufacturing industry is still the cornerstone of China's healthy economic development.Due to the risk of differentiated trade,different traders may be exposed to different levels of risk and cause unbalanced employment volatility in the job market.As a developing country with a large population,China's employment is the basis of people's livelihood.Reducing employment volatility is related to the unity and stability of society and the normal operation of the country's macro economy.Therefore,this paper combines China Industrial Enterprise Database and China Customs Database from 2000 to 2006 to empirically explore the impact of China's manufacturing import and export trade on the employment volatility of enterprises,and at the same time construct two instrumental variables to carry out two-stage least square(2SLS)regression to resolve endogenous problems.In order to expand the research content,this paper analyzes the root causes of the differences in the employment volatility between the import and export trades of enterprises from the perspective of trading partners.The papers include the number of countries and products of export destination countries and import source countries,the duration of trade,the income level of trading partner countries and the specific characteristics of trading partner countries.Among them,the specific characteristics of the country include the level of economic development of the trading partner countries,the number of employed people and the geographical distance between the trading partner countries and China.In addition,the paper further divides the sample into heterogeneity analysis,and conducts multi-dimensional research from the aspects of the company's trade mode,ownership type and the region where the enterprise is located.The study found that compared with non-traded enterprises,exporting enterprises and mixed enterprises can effectively reduce employment volatility.The absolute value of the mixed enterprise's coefficient is the smallest,while the imported enterprises will experience high employment volatility of 4.3%.China's accession to the World Trade Organization(WTO)can significantly improve China's foreign trade environment,reduce various uncertainties and stabilize domestic employment volatility.It is a positive policy.Whether it is an import or an export enterprise,the longer the trade lasts,the lower the level of employment volatility.Due to the diversification of the number of countries of export,enterprises can better share the risk of employment volatility caused by trade,and the number of products imported from the source countries is also conducive to reducing employment volatility.In addition,Chinese companies exporting to low-income and middle-income countries will experience lower employment volatility,but the farther the trading partner countries are from China,the more unfavorable the stability of the domestic job market.The level of economic development of trading partner countries also affects the employment volatility of Chinese enterprises to a certain extent.The increase in the number of employed people in the country of origin will cause a “crowding out effect” on the employment of Chinese enterprises,making the job market experience a greater level of volatility.From the perspective of corporate heterogeneity,it can be found that processing trade enterprises have a greater impact on employment volatility than general trade.On the whole,foreign-funded enterprises experience higher levels of employment volatility than state-owned enterprises,while enterprises in the Northeast have a greater impact on employment volatility than other regions.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations from the perspective of trading companies and trading partners.