Based On Optimization Of Age Group Fertility Method Research On The Age Structure Of China's Future Population

In recent years,relevant experts have repeatedly called on the state to implement the "three-child" policy and even liberalize the birth restriction policy.The reason is that the number of newborns in China has been declining in recent years and the total number of elderly people has been rising.Therefore,researching and predicting the age structure of the population plays an extremely important role in the future population planning.To study the age structure of the population,we must first study the birth population problem,because the birth population is at the bottom of the pyramid of the age structure of the population,and it is in the future.effect The algorithms of birth population prediction commonly used today include the birth rate method,the general fertility rate method,and the age-specific fertility rate method.These commonly used algorithms of birth population prediction are designed based on the subjective factors that are affecting the birth population,such as the total number of women in all age,mortality,fertility,etc.,without considering the influence of economic factors,national policy factors,national education,total population and other objective factors.With the continuous development of social culture and economy,the objective factors which are affecting the birth of the population have become more and more important.In recent years,the actual birth volume in China which is far lower than the number of births predicted by the state has fully reflected the defects of the traditional algorithm for the birth population prediction.Therefore,the prediction of the future birth population should consider the influence of objective factors on fertility,and its prediction results have practical significance.In view of this,this article takes into account the objective factors such as housing pressure,national education level,pension burden coefficient,etc.using the population-related data of the past years and using principal component analysis,multiple linear regression algorithm,gray GM(1,1)The algorithm,MATLAB software and SPSS software optimize the age group fertility method.The simulation results show that the optimized algorithm greatly improves the accuracy of birth population prediction,and has certain theoretical reference significance and high practical value.Finally,the optimized age-based fertility method and the common population prediction algorithm Leslie algorithmare combined to improve the Leslie algorithm.The improved Leslie algorithm is used to predict the population and the population structure tendency of China in the next 20 years.The prediction results show that if the current fertility trend is not interfered,the population structure of China will be seriously out of balance in the future.The continuous decline in the number of births will lead to a decline in the proportion of adolescents to the total population.The rising age of normal deaths in modern people and the age shift of a large number of births in the last century will lead to an increase in the proportion of the elderly population to the total population.Phenomenon.