The Research Of Making Decision About Enterprise Technology Innovation Investment Under The Uncertain Environment

Uncertainty is an important feature of technological innovation, theseuncertainties given the dynamic changes in corporate investment decisions andflexibility. Traditional investment decision-making tools transformed someuncertainty faced by enterprises in technological innovation for discussion certainty,ignoring technological innovation investment process uncertainty value; due totechnological innovation and investment has the characteristics of real options, andin-kind Options can solve the problem of uncertainty, able to invest in technologicalinnovation to estimate the value of flexibility than the traditional method ofinvestment decision has obvious advantages. While flexibility can be a good businessinvestment to assess the value of the investment decision based on real options, butonly on their own analysis of the situation, did not consider whether there arecompetitors in the market, that does not affect each other's business to be analysis,options analysis and therefore can not be completely kind of technological innovationinvestment decisions to be evaluated. Real option game approach to real options andgame theory to combine flexibility and strategic interaction will be placed in theenterprise market competition, corporate and investment decisions considering thecompetitors, providing a more scientific and technological innovation and investmentdecisions assessment methods.Firstly, the research status of technological innovation investment decisions werereviewed, and then introduces technical innovation, three real options theory andgame theory tools. On this basis, the traditional method of evaluation methods andtechnology innovation investment real options were reviewed, and the establishmentof complete monopoly uncertain environment, technological innovation duopolyconceptual model of corporate investment decisions and a number of businesscompetition, in each case and analyzed. For a complete monopoly enterprises,investment in technological innovation will be divided into three stages, based onmodeling complex real option theory, combined with technological innovationinvestment option value and optimal investment decision for analysis; against duopolycompetitive enterprises and multi-enterprise, reflect consideration of competitors,introduction of real options and game theory, the market as a business leader andfollower, the establishment of enterprise technology innovation investment optiongame model of corporate investment behavior analysis. Finally, the technologicalinnovation investment companies under three market scenarios numerical analysis tovalidate the model results. Three models and systems analysis, when the company ismore than three cases in the market, the model can refer to the text to make rationalinvestment decisions, provide assistance for the development of enterprises.