An Analysis Of The Tanker Investment Decision Based On Real Options And Options Game Theory

This article is based on the the basic situation that current China’s oil demand isgrowing, while domestic oil demand exceeds supply, growing dependence on foreign.Using the real options and option game theory to build a model, analysing theoffshore oil transportation enterprise investment decisions. This paper research workhas guiding significance for the offshore oil transportation enterprise investmentdecisionThe article first by gathering large amounts of data, analyzing t China’s oilreserves, compared the current situation of capacity。Come to conclusion that Chineseoil reserves is insufficien, require significant imports of oil, but maritime transport isrestricted by number of of oil tanker, far below the“Country’s oil countries transport”. Therefore, China has strongly established tanker fleet toensure our safety and smooth transportation of oil. The formation of the fleet, we mustface the tanker build, and operate investment, This article refers to the real optionstheory that applicated more and more widely in economic field , and the optiongame theory which combined with game theory to analyze investment of oil tankers.The article first comparing the real option method and traditional NPV theory, analyzethe advantage that real option theory is used to oil tanker investmen, then based on theactual marke study market prosperity and market downturn in two cases of oil tankerinvestment separately. In prosperous market conditions, using the theory of optiongame to analys two enterprise of the oligarchic monopoly situation. Separatelycalculated each enterprise’s investment critical value and the corresponding optimalvalue function. Use of matlab programming to simulate the enterprise value functioncurve, and extend this algorithm to the case of several competitive. In the marketdownturn, using the real option binomial-tree pricing model to analyse Stop- startoption and Drop the option of oil transportation enterprise, calculating thecorresponding option value. In both analysis and calculations of the two marketconditions,examples are cited to validate the model,and can be more directly to seethe adaptability and superiority by using of real options and option game theory in thefield of oil tanker investment.