The Methods For Estimating Probabilities Of Failure Scenarios Of Earthquake Barrier Lake Dam And Multiple-stages Risk Decision-making For Evacuation

Earthquake barrier lake is a common secondary disaster of earthquake,the failure of the dam will bring catastrophic damage to people's life and property security.At present,the earthquake barrier lake emergency response problem has been brought to the attention of management science and decision science's experts.Due to the influence of many uncertain factors,the earthquake barrier lake break or not has a high degree of uncertainty which usually can use probability to describe the likelihood of occurrence of such incidents.So it is important to accurately estimate the failure probabilities of barrier lake dam and make risk decision for evacuation during the barrier lake emergency response process.This paper aims at studying the emergency response risk decision-making problem of earthquake barrier lake and the methods for estimating probabilities of failure scenarios of earthquake barrier lake dams and multiple-stages risk decision-making for evacuation.Now this essay will be illustrated from the following three aspects.(1)A FTA-Based method is proposed for estimating probabilities of failure scenarios of earthquake barrier lake dam.Firstly,analyse the feasibility and limitations of the fault tree analysis to estimate probabilities of failure scenarios of barrier lake dams.At the same time put forward ideas to overcome the limitations.Then,on the basis of the relevant literature,a basic model of the fault tree about the failure of barrier lake dam is constructed.Finally,according to the constructed fault tree model and the probability theory calculate the probabilities of failure scenarios of barrier lake dam with respect to different time points and different response actions.(2)A risk decision-making method is proposed for multiple-stages evacuation.Firstly,the reasons of multiple-stages for evacuation are analyzed.Then,analyse and describe the problem about the multiple-stages risk decision-making for evacuation.Finally,on the condition of decision-makers regret aversion,calculate the utility value of the second phase and get the optimal evacuation remedial scheme.On this basis,the anticipated regret value is calcutated.Further,calculate the utility value of the current moment and obtain the optimal evacuation scheme.(3)Case study.This paper quotes T barrier lake dam emergency response problem as an example.Using the provided methods to estimate the failure probabilities of T barrier lake dam and get the optimal mass evacuation scheme,illustrate the using process of the proposed methods.The methods of this paper for estimating probabilities of failure scenarios of earthquake barrier lake dam and multiple-stages risk decision-making for evacuation are clear and easy to calculate.It has a certain significance to enrich and improve the related theory about eliminating the danger of barrier lake,it also has some practical application value.