Study On Supply Chain Decision-making Based On Uncertain Yield With Supply-demand Disequilibrium

Due to some artificial,uncontrollable natural factors as well as the characteristics of the product itself and other reasons,the problem of output uncertainty is widespread in the actual production and business activities.For example,the machine which is not repaired for long time,the changing weather and the chemical properties of some products all will cause the uncertain yield of supply side in supply chain.This uncertain yield will lead to the supply-demand disequilibrium of entire supply chain system and will have a direct impact on the decision-makings of supplier and retailer,which will make such a bilevel decision-making problem in supply chain system with a supplier and a retailer become complicated.First of all,for the supplier,because he is the producer of the product,he often show the characteristics of risk aversion when facing the uncertain yield risk.So the production input of supplier is not only affected by the size of the retailer's order,but also affected by his own risk aversion.And then for the downstream retailer,he will need to focus on the actual supply of supplier if he is facing a certain customize requirements which is closely related to the risk aversion of the supplier?If he is faced with the certain demand related to the market price,he need to make decisions according to its existing inventory and market demand.Namely it needs to consider matching problem between the supply and the demand,after receiving delivery of the supplier.In view of the above-mentioned conditions,in which the supplier faces the uncertain yield and different market conditions faced by retailers,this paper has established the corresponding mathematical model to carry on the analysis.In the process of establishing the model,the characteristics of the risk aversion of the supplier which will be described by segmented utility function of the risk function.When the retailer faces a certain customization requirement,the corresponding contract is introduced to enable the supply chain to be coordinated.And a delayed pricing strategy is introduced to analyze the dynamic game behavior between suppliers and retailers to make their optimal decisions,when retailers face certain price-related needs.At the same time,analyzing the decision-making situation when the supply chain is concentrated.Finally,the numerical analysis of the above model are carried out,which verifies the correctness and validity of the conclusions.This paper provides a new theoretical framework and management thinking for the bilevel supply chain decision-making model based on uncertain yield,which has the guiding significance to the production and business activities in practice.