Research On The Impact Of Uncertainty On The Profits Of Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain

Influenza vaccine is of great significance to the health of citizens.However,due to the unique production technology of influenza vaccine and the unstable vaccination demand,the mismatch between the supply and demand of influenza vaccine occurs repeatedly,resulting in a large economic loss in the influenza vaccine supply chain.Therefore,it is of practical significance to explore the impact of uncertainty on the profits of the influenza vaccine supply chain.In the current literature on the influenza vaccine supply chain,some of the literature only discusses the uncertainty of yield or demand,and does not analyze the impact of uncertainty changes on supply chain returns under the centralized and decentralized decision-making model.In addition,there exists a cost-sharing mechanism between public health organizations and manufacturers to mitigate the impact of uncertainty.Therefore,based on the modeling of the actual characteristics of the influenza vaccine supply chain,this paper compared and analyzed the impact of the centralized and decentralized decision-making models,uncertainty changes on supply chain profits,and explored the coordinating role of cost-sharing contracts.This paper first explores the centralized decision-making model.Only consider a kind of uncertainty,the contrast analysis of the influence of uncertainty on the centralized system profits,found that the centralized system returns as yield and decreases or demand uncertainty,when the mean demand is bigger,the centralized system should be more focus on yield uncertainty,the yield increased uncertainty make centralized system profits reduction is greater;When the mean value of demand is smaller,the increase of uncertainty of demand will result in a greater decrease in profits.Considering the two kinds of uncertainty,the optimal decision and benefit of the centralized system with different marginal income and uncertainty are obtained,and the influence of uncertainty change on the decision is explored.In the wholesale price contract,when only one kind of uncertainty is taken into account,this paper compares and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the profits of supply chain members.For manufacturers,it is found that if the marginal benefit of epidemic prevention stations is large,the increase of demand uncertainty is beneficial to the manufacturers,and the manufacturers who only consider the uncertainty of demand gain more.If the marginal benefit of the epidemic prevention station is small,the conclusion is the same as the centralized decision-making model.For the epidemic prevention station,the income of the epidemic prevention station decreases with the uncertainty of the yield or demand,and it is found that the average demand is smaller.The epidemic prevention station should pay more attention to the uncertainty of the yield,and the increase of the uncertainty of the yield will lead to a greater reduction of the yield.When the mean value of demand is large,the increase of uncertainty of demand makes the yield decrease larger.This paper further compares and analyzes the impact of centralized decision-making and wholesale price contracts on supply chain returns.When only one kind of uncertainty is considered,the total profits of the supply chain decreases with the increase of yield or demand uncertainty.Finally,this paper compared the cost sharing contract and wholesale price contract of supply chain profit,found that only considering yield uncertainty,the supply chain cost sharing contract can coordinate the wholesale price contract,and epidemic prevention station to share the cost is not the bigger the better,at the moment there is an optimal share the costs,improve the supply chain cost sharing contract revenue role to achieve the optimal.When only considering the uncertainty of demand,the costsharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain of decentralized decision model.