Study On The Influence Of Urban Housing Prices On Residents' Consumption In Northeast China

The wealth effect first appeared in Keynes' s "General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money",but Keynes did not put assets into the consumption theory,but simply analyzed the consumption from the perspective of income.Pigou and Patinkin then studied in depth the impact of assets on consumption and proposed the theory of currency balance effects.In 1997,the financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the sharp depreciation of the Thai baht caused the economies of some Asian countries to begin to decline.The stock market shrank more than 70%,but these negative effects did not reduce household consumption.The traditional consumption hypothesis cannot explain this strange phenomenon,but the wealth effect theory can adapt well.Through this opportunity,the wealth effect theory begins to enter the people's eyes.Real estate in addition to meeting residential needs also has investment attributes.The rise in house prices has attracted a large number of investors and even speculators to enter the real estate market,which has led to a further increase in housing prices,which in turn has an impact on consumption.Since the reform of the housing system,China's real estate has brought into full play the functions of its pillar industries,promoted domestic demand,and vigorously promoted the growth of the national economy.However,with the development of the housing market,due to the rapid increase in housing prices,the market is irrational and prosperous.The housing prices in the first-tier and second-tier cities have reached an unacceptable position for ordinary people.Housing prices are no longer a catalyst for household consumption.Excessive housing prices instead generate consumption.Extrusion effect.China's vast land and resources,different levels of economic development,the real estate market also has regional differences.Most of the existing studies have studied the wealth effect of real estate from the national macro data.Although they are also analyzed from the regional perspective,they are also divided into the three major regions of the East,Central,and West.Because the status quo of the real estate market is characterized by highly differentiated characteristics,theevolution of house prices in different places and the impact on consumption are different,so the problem cannot be explained only from macro data or large area data.The northeastern region was a national key industrial base and played an important role in promoting the development of the national economy.After the reform and opening up,the eastern coastal areas rapidly emerged and the industrial center of gravity began to migrate to the eastern region.Under this economic background,the industrial structure dominated by heavy industry in the northeast and supplemented by a small amount of light industry has not been effectively adjusted,the economic growth rate has been slowing down,the cities in the region have been seriously divided,and the effective demand of residents has been insufficient.As a leading and pillar industry,real estate is strongly associated with other industries and can effectively promote domestic demand and play an important role in the regional economy.In the Northeast,housing prices are in the middle and lower reaches of the first-tier cities,and the market has not yet become apparent.foam.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to analyze the impact of housing prices on consumption,rationally customize related policies,and enhance the positive promotion of housing prices to consumption,and then to promote the role of consumption in promoting national economic growth and revitalizing old industrial bases.This article studies the existing literature,analyzes the transmission mechanism of the house price fluctuations that affect consumption,and then constructs a model based on the life cycle-sustainable income theory to empirically test the extent of the real estate wealth effect in Northeast China.The results show that: In the northeast region,rising housing prices will have a positive effect on household consumption.However,this positive impact is low,and income is still the primary factor affecting consumption.Analyzed from a regional perspective,housing prices in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province will have a positive effect on consumption,but house price changes will have a weaker impact on the consumption of urban residents in the region.In Liaoning Province,the opposite is true.House prices are positive to consumption.The pulling effect is greater than the pulling effect of income on consumption.From the city level,the results showed that of the 34 cities selected,15 cities were Jilin,Siping,Tonghua,Harbin,Dalian,Hegang,Daqing,Yichun,Jiamusi,Mudanjiang,Suihua,Anshan,Fushun,Benxi and Fuxin.The housing price has a significant correlation with consumption,among which the urban housing prices in Fushun have a squeeze effect on residents' consumption;Tonghua,Suihua,Dalian,Anshan,Benxi and Fuxin are real estate wealth effects.Jilin,Siping,Harbin,Hegang,Daqing,Yichun,Jiamusi and Mudanjiang have a greater impact on consumption than housing prices.Finally,relevant policy recommendations are given for the conclusion.