Research On The Location Choice Of China's Outward Forward Direct Investment To "One Belt One Road" Countries

Since the financial crisis in 2008,the development of the world economy has slowed,and the recovery of direct foreign investment in the world has been weak.To counter the pressure of the global economic downturn,our country is actively integrating into the process of economic globalization while it is committed to promoting the construction of the "One Belt and One Road".At present,China's foreign direct investment has entered a stage of rapid growth,and it has gradually transformed itself from a "product producer" to a "capital exporter" in the world.However,although China's OFDI is spread over all continents,there are still problems of uneven distribution of capital in a few areas.This kind of differentiated agglomeration is not only caused by the differences in the elements of the two countries,but also has a close relationship with the spatial effect of the "third country".The dynamic changes in the investment environment of "third countries" within the region are important factors that influence OFDI location selection and spatial pattern.Therefore,based on the traditional "two-state" foreign direct investment model,this paper combines the spatial effect of "third country" with the choice of investment location,and clarifies the following questions:Is China's direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" spatially different?There are spatial effects of"third countries" that are interdependent and interrelated;How the spatial effects of different factors affect the quantity and direction of foreign investment;Whether spatial effects manifest as spillover effects or crowding-out effects among regions;How to exert and use " The spatial effect of the existence of the third country guides the location selection of OFDI in China.Further study and resolution of China's OFDI mechanism and laws of spatial effect in the region is conducive to identifying different host country location advantages;using spatial "third country" spatial effects to guide investment directions,in order to select a reasonable investment location and optimize the spatial pattern of foreign investment.Providing scientific evidence is of great significance for maintaining the stability and sustainable development of OFDI in China.Firstly,based on the frontier theory and application of international trade,regional economics,and spatial econometrics,this paper uses a comparative analysis method and a combination of normative analysis and empirical test to study the spatial effect of China's direct investment in countries along the "One Belt and One Road".The existence,influence path,impact on the choice of OFDI location and how to use spatial effects to guide China's foreign direct investment.After expounding the research background and significance,the imperfections in the current research are proposed based on the classical theory and literature review,and the spatial effects of direct investment in the "Belt and Road" countries are analyzed.Based on the current status of investment and the spatial distribution of investment,the research focuses on the mechanism of OFDI spatial effects.Among them,the channel of spatial agglomeration effect is talent flow and forward-backward correlation;the channel of spatial spillover effect is competition and benign cycle;the channel of spatial crowding effect is market crowding.According to the influence mechanisms of the three effects,it provides a theoretical basis for the empirical model.Secondly,in the empirical part,37 major countries along the "Belt and Road" are selected as research objects,and empirical tests are conducted on the spillover and crowding out effects of China's direct investment.After the Moran'I test of spatial correlation,the SAR,SEM,and SDM models were established to examine the effect of "Third Country" spatial effects of natural,economic,labor capital,political,and industrialization between "One Belt and One Road" countries on OFDI in China.The study found that the spatial effect of China's direct investment in countries along the"One Belt and One Road" is significant.Specifically,the degree of labor capital and openness to the outside world shows a spatial crowding-out effect,while the degree of trade dependence and political risk show a spillover effect.The labor capital of neighboring countries and the development of opening to the outside world will competitively reduce the amount of investment in neighboring countries,while the increase in trade dependence and the reduction in political risks will drive the investment in neighboring countries.GDP,industrialization,and natural resources are the motivations for investment in a few countries,and the spatial effect is weak.In terms of investment preference,China tends to invest in neighboring countries that belong to the same FTA.Finally,in the conclusions and policy recommendations,according to the spatial effects of different factor endowments,following the basic ideas of optimizing investment location selection and spatial pattern,put forward related countermeasures and suggestions:using space agglomeration effect,from "development of spatial agglomeration point" to "full Regional cooperation development "change;make use of national advantages to develop differentiated regional investment strategies;pay attention to the role of trade in investment promotion,formulate more coordinated and integrated regional investment strategies;use excellent host country labor force capital to provide human resources for OFDI in China Guarantee of resources;build an investment environment information platform to avoid political risks.