The Empirical Research On The Impact Of Real Estate Price Fluctuation On China's Banking Stability

Since the reform of commercialization of the real estate industry in China in the 1980s,this industry,which is closely related to the daily life of the people,has made great progress.Today,the real estate industry as one of the major industries for the country's economic growth not only generates a large amount of tax revenue,but also drives the rapid expansion of upstream and downstream related industries.The accompanying real estate price bubble has also increasingly become a hidden danger in the further development of the national economy.The banking industry,which is the foundation of China's financial system,can guarantee whether its stability is related to whether the national economy can move forward steadily,and the real estate industry has long been connected with the banking industry through a large amount of credit accumulation.The price fluctuations in the real estate market will produce stability in the banking system.What kind of influence is a problem that needs attention.This paper selects representative indicators of the banking industry,constructs a stability index of the banking system based on the factor analysis method,and explores the relationship between the index and real estate price fluctuations based on the VAR model.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,based on the review of domestic and foreign studies on the stability of the banking system,three aspects,from the real estate price fluctuations,the stability of the banking system,and the real estate price fluctuations,affect the stability of the banking system.Summarized relevant theoretical results and conducted theoretical analysis.Secondly,introduced the status quo of the stability of China's real estate market and banking industry.From the historical changes in the real estate industry,industry characteristics and future trends,analyzed the potential direction of its market price fluctuations,from the supervision of the banking system.Changes in policies,bank's capital strength,and bank's business structure describe the stability of the banking industry;again,six representative indicators are selected from three aspects:liquidity risk,credit risk,and foreign exchange risk in the banking industry.Using factor analysis to construct an index representing the stability of the banking system,and building a VAR model with historical fluctuations in real estate prices to explore the relationship between the two;Finally,based on empirical analysis results,from the real estate industry,the banking system itself and both Three connected financial environments Propose appropriate policy recommendations plane.