Intergovernmental Fiscal Trsansfer Payment In Economic Fluctuation

Economic fluctuation is a common phenomenon in every country.When faced with macroeconomic fluctuations,the government can achieve the goals for political,economic and social development over a period of time by using fiscal policy tools such as adjusting fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and borrowing level.Therefore,the study of the effectiveness and cyclical behavior of fiscal policy has been the focus of the academic community.The traditional theory holds that the counter-cyclical fiscal policy should be taken to stabilize economic operation and smooth the economic fluctuation,and what policies have been implemented in China?Many scholars have analyzed and verified the cyclical characteristics of fiscal expenditure and tax from different angles.As an important means of fiscal policy,how does the intergovernmental fiscal transfer change along with the economic cycle?To explore this question,this paper selects the panel data from 1999 to 2009,283 prefecture level cities,the periodicity of the fiscal transfer payment in economic fluctuations between the government,in order to enrich the research contents of fiscal policy and periodic transfer payment and economic fluctuation etc.Firstly,this thesis reviewed the studies about cyclical behavior of fiscal policy,intergovernmental fiscal transfer payment and economic fluctuation,analyzed the research status and methods,put forward the necessity of studying the cyclical behaviorof intergovernmental fiscal transfer payment,and proposed the empirical model based on the existing researchmethod.Secondly,in order to deeply discuss the changing of intergovernmental fiscal transfer payment with the economic cycle,this paper made empirical investigation to the total transfer payment and its three categories(tax return,general transfer payments and special transfer payments)at the national level and regional level.The results show that the transfer payments to prefecture-level city is pro-cyclical at the national level as well as in the East and Middle of China,but is non-cyclical in the West,and the tax return is non-cyclical at the national level and regional level,and the general transfer payments is pro-cyclical at the national level and regional level,and the special transfer payments is counter-cyclical at the national level and in the eastern and western region,but is counter-cyclical in the central region.Meanwhile,according to the results,the possible reasons behind them are discussed.Finally,the final section summarized the main conclusions of the study,and pointed out the research limitation and the future research prospects.