Research On House Price Fluctuations,Land Finance And Local Government Debt Security

In recent years,the fluctuation of housing price,land finance and local government debt have been widely concerned.On the one hand,the market's rigid demand for real estate is increasing,and the real estate price is constantly rising,which further increases the government's motivation to use land to raise funds,and makes the government's debt financing approach tend to be based on land finance.For this reason,local governments are more prone to debt risk crisis.On the other hand,in order to improve performance,promote local economic development and expand employment,local governments increase their reliance on local land finance and expand the scale of financing,thus causing unreasonable local government borrowing.If the local government has the problem of credit default,the financial risk will be quickly transformed into financial risk,which will affect the whole economic chain,reduce people's trust in the government,and then affect the normal life and work of the whole society.The existing "fiscal federalism" has the following problems: First,local governments borrow money in the name of the government,which is prone to various problems,and there is no good internal restriction mechanism to manage it;Second,there is no corresponding mechanism to correct mistakes after the local government debt crisis,which makes the crisis still possible.Third,because of the lack of corresponding institutional arrangements,fiscal federalism tends to cause local governments to pay too much attention to economic growth and taxation.Therefore,the governance of local government debt needs to be considered from multiple perspectives,and the corresponding policy measures should be taken into comprehensive consideration.Based on the above problems,this paper proposes a local government debt security evaluation model based on factor analysis method(FA)and panel data model.This model is mainly composed of the following two parts: one is to build comprehensive evaluation and measurement system of local government debt security in our country,through the factor analysis method(FA)to measure China's local government debt security comprehensive evaluation model,calculate the various provinces and cities of local government debt security composite scores,the empirical analysis of panel data model for the next step to provide data support;Second,it analyzes the impact of housing price fluctuations and land finance on the debt security of local governments.After collecting and processing relevant data,it conducts empirical analysis and draws conclusions: first,the fluctuation of housing price has a negative effect on the security of local government debt;second,land finance has a negative effect on the debt security of local governments in China;third,the early stage of local government debt security in China plays a role in the late stage.Finally,it puts forward relevant policy Suggestions: first,it restrains the excessive borrowing impulse of local governments;second,we will reduce the size of existing local government debt;third,improve the debt repayment capacity of local governments.Based on the safety assessment of local government debt as the main line,innovation point has the following two points: first,the local government debt security research is relatively small,in this paper,based on existing research and the principle of the index selection,choose from the debt security,solvency and the debt scale of the three dimension seven indicators are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system of local government debt security,calculated composite scores of each province is relatively scientific and reasonable to describe the China's local government debt security situation;Second,based on the paper selected topic,choose the two from the house price fluctuation and land finance perspective to explore both the impact on local government debt security situation,through the panel data model to empirical analysis,take on local government debt security data characteristics,can be further as a research model of local government debt security issues related to continue to follow-up study.These two innovations add new perspectives and methods for further study on the security of local government debt in the future.It is hoped that more representative indicators and methods with stronger universality can be selected in the future study,so as to form a relatively complete set of China's local government debt security indicator system as soon as possible.