Research On Credit Risk Of Credit Debt In China

The bond market is an indispensable part of a country's financial market.In recent years,with the rapid development of our national economy and the deepening of the financial market,the bond market in China is bound to undergo a tough revolution,which is not only the inevitable result of the economic development,but also the inevitable choice for the maturity of the financial market.The continuous innovation of financial products,the rapid expansion of the bond market,the breaking of rigid payment and the marketization of bonds in a real sense are imperative.With the prosperity of China's bond market,the dual characteristics of bond profitability and the risk will be more comprehensive and intuitive to highlight and expose.So solving the problems that how to effectively measure the credit quality and default risk of all kinds of bonds in the bond market is not only the key to develop a healthy bond market,but also the key to stabilize the economy of our country.In addition,the credit market in China is in the initial stage of development,which makes measuring the credit risk of bonds become a continuous hot issue to research.Although the credit evaluation system is being built and perfected in our country,the credit risk measurement of the bond mainly depends on the credit rating system in our country's bond market.The credit rating system of our country is facing the problem of lacking timeliness and accuracy,so it can‘t meet the demand of the market and also can't satisfy the requirement of risk prevention.Therefore,it is necessary to seek more effective and instructive credit measurement methods in our country nowadays.In this paper,we analyze the bond market credit of our country by using the methods of literature analysis,comparative analysis,empirical research,statistical test and so on.We selected 637 data as sample;use the revised KMV to measure the risk so as to adapt the capital market in our country.Finally,we calculate the default distance of all samples in three years(2014,2015 and 2016)according to the selection model and test its effectiveness as well.The results show that the test results are consistent with the actual situation,indicating that the KMV model can effectively measure the credit risk of China's credit debt market.Finally,according to the calculation results,we regroup the sample data according to the industry to find difference of the default distance between different industries and the characters in different rating default distance in the same industry.Those all have great practical significance to improve the credit risk measurement and management level of China's credit debt.