The Empirical Analysis Of Default Risk Of Real Estate Development Loans

In recent years,with the development of China's national economy.the real estate sector has shown a trend of rapid development,and the scale of real estate development loans has also continued to expand.The proportion of real estate development loans in the total loans of commercial banks has also continued to rise.The consequent increase in non-performing loan ratios for real estate loans have also continued to increase.Commercial banks have included the real estate industry in high-risk industries and put the risk of preventing defaults on real estate loans on the agenda.How to prevent the real estate development loan default risk is seriously related to the stability of China's banking system and the development of the national economy.At present,China lacks a credit database,the credit system is not perfect,and the commercial bank's internal control mechanism is not perfect,which makes China's commercial banks fall behind in the study and measurement of default risk of real estate loans.This paper has important practical significance by analyzing advanced foreign risk measurement methods,and based on our national conditions,to optimize the measurement of default risk of commercial bank real estate development loan and research.This article takes commercial bank real estate development loan default risk as the main object of the study,and is divided into five parts for theoretical explanation and empirical analysis.The introduction part introduced the background and significance of the topic selection,and also elaborated the main achievements and status quo of domestic and foreign experts and scholars.The introduction part introduced the background and significance of the topic selection,and also elaborated the main achievements and status quo of domestic and foreign experts and scholars.The first chapter is a related theoretical overview of bank loan default risk.The second chapter defines the concept of real estate development loans,introduces the current status of real estate development loans,and analyzes the causes of loan default risks.The third chapter focuses on traditional and modern risk measurement methods and compares them.The fourth chapter based on the KMV model to carry out the empirical analysis of real estate listed companies.The empirical results show that the KMV model can calculate the default distance and the expected default probability of real estate listed companies,and draw the risk of loan default.The fifth chapter puts forward some suggestions for strengthening the risk management of commercial bank loan default in real estate industry.