Research On The Measurement Of The Credit Risk Of Real Estate Development Loans In China

As opening up to the outside world of Chinese financial market, effectivemechanism of risk management becomes the emphasis in the management ofcommercial banks.Now,the number of Chinese commercial bank is increasingconstantly,the competition between banks is more and more intense.How toeffectively preventing risks while expanding the business is an important issue to besolved of commercial banks.At present,in the domestic,all kinds of real estatecompanies are emerging constantly,this is assuredly providing great service marketto commercial banks.According to statistics,sa of2013,the real estate developmentloan balance reached4,600billion,the growth rate return to peak,however,behind thegrowth in real estate development loans,credit risk of real estate enterprises can not beignored.If commercial banks within a reasonable and effective real estate enterprisescredit risk assessment system,could make effective judgment to the credit degree ofthe real estate enterprises,so that you can eliminate the credit real estate businessconcerns of the commercial banks,so as to achieve the purpose of”win-win”situationbetween the commercial banks and real estate enterprises.Through the analysis of current situation of credit risk measurement andmanagement of our courtry found,credit risk measurement methods are still relativelybackward,lay particular stress on qualitative and simple quantitative,lead to credit riskmeasurement foundation is weak,commercial banks are facing greater credit risk.Inview of this situation,this paper summarizes the credit risk measurement models usedwidely in the international,analy its applicability in china combined with the actualsituation in our country at the present stage,found that to establish Logistic regressionmodel that suits our country present stage for risk measurement..Then based on theLogistic regression model,put to use the data and material from the third quarter of2010to the second quarter of2013of the40real estate listing Corporation toempirical study.The empirical results show that, accuracy of the Logistic model tomeasure the risk of real estate development enterprises with high;Solvency in theestate business enterprise whether default has great influence;At the same time,the macro environment is also playing an important role.Finally, on how to guard againstthe credit risk of real estate development loans made some policy recommendations.