Study On Risks Allocation And Profits Game Of Pension Institution PPP Project

Under the double stimulates of the broad prospects of the pension industry market and government favorable policies,more and more pension institution projects adopt PPP model for construction and operations.Meanwhile,the constant landing of Pension Institution PPP Project brings new key issues:In the PPP model,the construction of risks allocation and profits sharing mechanism is the prerequisite for the project to achieve value-for-money,but the existing risks allocation and profits sharing schemes are of insufficient operational,vague calculation accuracy,and unavailable integrity and logic,and can not apply to this particular area of Pension Institution PPP Project.Therefore,this paper takes the above urgent issues as the starting point and explores a series of issues such as risks allocation and profits disposition in the public and private sectors of the project.This paper reviews research status of risks allocation,profits disposition and other related issues,combing Bargaining Game,Shapley Value Method,and other related theories.Based on this,the following research have been done:First,this paper identifies 26 risk factors for Pension Institution PPP Project,and its importance is assessed through Factor Analysis Method,the results show that in Pension Institution PPP Project,the political and legal environment has the greatest impact on the project,followed by construction and operation factors;Based on the process of risks allocation,a preliminary plan based on the Grounded Theory for risks allocation between public and private parties is established,the risk-taking party with its own risk is assumed,and joint adventure disposition model of the public and private parties is established on the basis of the three-phase bargaining theory of cooperative games,forming a complete risks allocation plan.And the conclusion that the private sector should raise the level of effort is obtained through numerical analysis.Secondly,under the guidance of Stakeholder Theory,top ten participants in Pension Institution PPP Project are divided into three categories: core stakeholders,general stakeholders,and marginal stakeholders.A detailed exposition of the interest appeals of the public and private sectors which are core stakeholders is carried out:The public sector pays more attention to the social benefits brought about by the project,while the private sector strives to maximize the economic benefits of the project.Thirdly,based on the Shapley Value Method,a modified Shapley Value profits disposition scheme was designed with the four correction factors of public and private risk allocation proportion,investment proportion,contract execution degree and contribution degree.This scheme not only avoids the traditional Shapley Value Method assuming that the influencing factors of profits disposition are neutral defects,but also contains the incentive mechanism to promote the maximum benefit of the project;The theory proposed in this paper are verified and analyzed with the example of Kai Fang Pension Institution PPP Project.Finally,the theory proposed in this paper are verified and analyzed with the example of Kai Fang Pension Institution PPP Project.The results of the example analysis show that risks allocation and profits sharing scheme constructed in this paper is more superior and scientific.This paper uses Game Theory and Statistical Methods to discuss the core issues in Pension Institution PPP Project,and designs a suitable,scientific risks allocation and profits disposition program.The study not only provides a new methodological reference for project operations,but also expands the breadth and depth of theoretical research related to the pension industry and the PPP model.