| In the context of the global value chain,trade relations between countries have become increasingly closer.China and the United States,as the world's two largest exporters,have witnessed rapid development of bilateral trade and have become an important part of their respective foreign trade.At the same time,although China and the United States have different statistical sources and calibers,China has for many years had a huge trade surplus with the United States.Since the current statistical methods for export trade are based on the export prices of customs statistics products,the value of imported intermediate products contained therein is ignored.Since the 1980 s,China has played an important role in the export of intermediate goods.Therefore,the use of traditional trade statistics methods can easily lead to the exaggeration of China's trade interests in bilateral trade,which in turn can misjudge Chinese trade status and distort Sino-U.S.bilateral trade relations.This paper first uses the world input-output data based on the new trade accounting method.According to the source of value of the product's export and its ultimate absorption,the total exports of China and the United States and various industries from 2000 to 2014 will be disaggregated.Based on this,we reassess the real gains of China and the United States in bilateral trade.Secondly,by measuring the global value chain(GVC)position index,the GVC participation index,and the True Comparative Advantage Index(TRCA)of China and the United States as a whole and of various export industries,the position and participation of the two countries as a whole and the industry in the global value chain are International competitiveness is measured.Finally,the GVC Location Index and the GVC Participation Index and the TRCA Index were integrated to establish an industry trade status matrix and analyze the trade status of China's exports to various industries in the United States.The results of the study show that from 2000 to 2014,compared with the new trade accounting method,the traditional customs data seriously overestimated the true bilateral trade scale and income of China and the United States,and the overestimation degree was about 20%.China's GVC position index is negative,showing a positive U-shape,while the United States is positive and negatively Ushaped.It shows that China is located at the back end of the U.S.in the global value chain,but the gap between the two countries has gradually narrowed.China's position in the GVC division of labor system has become more favorable,and the favorable position of the United States has continued to weaken.The position index of GVC in most industries in China has been increasing,but only the value of the GVC location index for agriculture/Animal husbandry and fishery is greater than zero.China's industries are almost always downstream of the global value chain,but the industry's international division of labor is constantly increasing.As a result,the GVC participation rate in various industries has also increased significantly.From the index of industrial competitiveness,it shows that the primary industry has a continuous comparative advantage in China and has always maintained a high level of competitiveness in the industry.The competitiveness of the secondary industry has gradually increased,and the competitiveness of the service industry is weak.Finally,combining the aforementioned indicators with the domestic value-added coefficient of export industry to build a trade status matrix,it can be found that only leather/leather products/shoes is the industry with potential advantages in the four industries with the largest amount of China's exports to the United States,and the remaining three industries All of them are inferior industries.China should further optimize the industrial structure and increase the comprehensive competitiveness of high-value-added industries in order to increase the trade position of the industry in the global value chain. |
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