An Research On The Impact Of Rising Labor Costs On China's Agricultural Planting Structure

During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”period,China's agricultural development direction was adjusted to stable,quality,and efficiency,and adjustment and optimization of agricultural planting structure was a top priority.At the same time,it was faced with a series of new challenges,especially as the labor cost continued to rise rapidly.The cost of agricultural production has skyrocketed.Therefore,the key question that needs to be discussed and solved is whether the increase in labor costs will significantly affect the agricultural planting structure and how to cope with the impact of rising labor costs on the agricultural planting structure.First of all,in order to understand the changing trend of labor cost and agricultural planting structure in China,this research uses quantitative statistical methods to quantitatively analyze the changes in labor costs and agricultural planting structure.The research shows that: China's agricultural labor costs Sustained rapid upward trend.As of 2016,labor costs account for more than 50% of the total cost of agricultural production.The average wage of agricultural employees has increased by nearly 7 times that of 1998,and the wages for employees of food crops are generally higher than those of employees of economic crops.From a national point of view,the structure of agricultural planting shows the following changes: In the grain crops,the proportion of rice and wheat sown areas has continuously declined,and the proportion of corn sown area has continuously increased;among the economic crops,the proportion of vegetable sown area has increased rapidly,and the ratio of cotton and oil planting area fluctuates.Decline,tobacco planting area ratio is relatively stable.In terms of sub-regions,the sown area of grain crops in the eastern region continued to decrease and the sown area of vegetables continued to increase.The sown area of grain crops in Northeast China continued to increase and the sown area of vegetables decreased slightly.The sown area of grain crops in the central region was relatively stable,and the sown area of vegetables continued to increase;The sown area of grain crops in the western region has decreased slightly,and the sown area of vegetables has continued to increase.The agricultural planting structure has been adjusted toward the direction of the production center and regional specialization.Subsequently,the theoretical analysis of the impact of rising labor costs on the structure of agricultural planting shows that: in the plain areas that satisfy mechanical operations or economies of scale where agricultural machinery operations exist,labor costs are reduced through the purchase of agricultural machinery or the socialization of farm machinery.The increase in labor costs will help expand the proportion of sown area for food crops.In regions with higher levels of economic development or close to high-income population centers,the relatively high prices and revenues obtained through the sale of high-value-added products will cover the rising labor costs.The increase in labor costs will help expand high-value-added cash crops.Proportion of planted area;of course,in areas that are not suitable for producing high-value-added products,use of products with less labor input,lower production value(such as bamboo,etc.)to replace field crops such as grain,or extensive management including extreme cases with desertion,the increase in labor costs has led to a reduction in the sown area of crops.Finally,this study uses provincial panel data from 1998 to 2016 to use a two-way fixed effect model to empirically analyze the impact of rising labor costs on China's agricultural planting structure.The results show that labor costs have doubled,and the proportion of grain crop sown area has increased.4.3%,of which maize increased by 5.2%,rice decreased by 2.3%,and wheat was not significant.Among economic crops,labor costs increased by a factor of 2.Crops sown with high added value and high added value increased by 2.9% and flue-cured tobacco increased by 0.1%;Labor-intensive crop cotton decreased by 0.9% and oil was not significant.In terms of sub-regions,under the background of rising labor costs,the planting structure of food crops is significantly affected by the total power of agricultural machinery,and is replaced by input elements and gathered in the central and northeastern regions where the plains are widely distributed;the planting structures of high-value-added vegetables and other economic crops are affected by non-agriculture.The significant impact of the economic ratio,through the substitution of planting products,is gathering in the eastern region of the economically developed and densely populated urban consumer market;the low-yield labor-intensive oil and other field crops are significantly affected by the number of agricultural laborers and are concentrated in the central and northeastern regions.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations for coping with rising labor costs,optimizing agricultural planting structure,and enhancing China's agricultural competitiveness: promote the substitution of agricultural machinery for labor,remove barriers to cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery,cultivate agricultural social service organizations,and improve The agricultural machinery subsidy policy is conducive to expanding grain production;cultivating professional farmers,professional employees,and setting up a training platform and service market for agricultural employees are conducive to expanding the production of economic crops;the adjustment of plant structure and optimization should fully consider the time cycle,respect economic laws,and steadily Advancement;Adjustment of agricultural planting structure should encourage the centralization of production areas and regional specialization,and achieve moderate scale operations.