The Research Of Urban Complex Project Risk Management Based On The Theory Of Extenics

In recent years,along with the national macro-control policies introduced gradually,the traditional development mode of real estate has made before soaring gradually calmed,more real estate enterprises under the background of new era transformation in succession,the target to the commercial real estate,and the larger is the urban complex project.Urban complex project is to point to include housing,hotels,culture,entertainment,office and other functions into an integrated whole building group.City synthesis on the one hand,integration of the urban resource,improve the efficiency of urban operation;On the other hand,urban complex projects not only promote the development of the urban economy also brought in big profits for the enterprise.Although urban comprehensive program to get the favour of a lot of real estate enterprises,but the city has a complex project size dimension is bigger,development cycle is long,the difficulty of high input costs.This feature makes urban complex project in the prophase of from feasibility study,project location,to invest in the middle of the construction cost control,to later investment operation,property management services in the whole process will continue to face all kinds of risks.In this paper,the whole process of urban complex project risk as the main research object,combining the theory of extenics risk assessment index,is established on the basis of the actual situation of project and expert interview,selection of environmental risk,supply and demand and the market positioning and development risk,their own internal and external social risk from five aspects of rule layer,and purchasing power risk,competition risk,time limit for a project schedule risk,such as 16 indicators layer of risk factors,according to the associated with the risk level of each index value finally determine the risk level of every index.Shenyang WLH selected project as an example of urban complex risk assessment model for the case study,through the form of questionnaires to the experts investigation the probability of the risk factors and the index layer loss value,finally by evaluating model to calculate the size of correlation between the level of risk,determine the risk of each risk factor criterion layer size.Market environment have a higher risk,risk and positioning of supply and demand and the external social risk level of medium,their own development and construction risk and internal risk rating is low.According to the results of the final assessment for WLH project specific risk coping suggestions were put forward.